Hi Exstasie,
Good to see you!

We are currently in Phase D of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. Phase D has two major events. #1 - Is the "Sign of Strength" (SOS) pushing us substantially above Preliminary Support to establish a new higher trading range. #2 - is the "Back Up/Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS); which is basically re-accumulation within that new higher established trading range. Once our "Back Up/Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS) is completed; this will end Phase D and we transition into Phase E. However, We are not "officially" in Phase e until we breakout ABOVE $13,880 on Bitstamp.
How likely is it that the December-June rally was a bull trap and that we are still in a prolonged Phase A? That would be a painful scenario for bulls.
I honestly do not see that being the case. The "time" structure and "price" structure just do not line up with that scenario.
Even if we do fall lower into the $6k's, this does not mean we are going to continue into a prolonged bear market. It simply means our BU/LPS dropped lower before our transition into Phase E in my opinion.
Let's say hypothetically that we
are in a prolonged bear market, headed to new lows. How low would we need to go to confirm we are not in Phase D? All the way down to $3,122?
Correct, we would have to fall below $3,122 on Bitstamp. This would basically mean Phase D was rejected and we would be in a phase C of a Distribution Schematic. However, this scenario and structure would be totally out of line with any Wyckoff Schematic I have seen. Especially, for crypto...