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Today on #bitcoin
gmaxwell: wumpus: yea, I understand they had timed automatic reissues...
this was also something I didn't know prior to monday before last and is one of the other reasons my "they couldn't have lost much!" position softened to "I have no freeking clue."
alpha125: gmaxwell: where did you find out abotu the automatic reissues?
gmaxwell: alpha125: from mtgox staff and magicaltux ... I had assumed previously that any reissues were manual via customer support but apparently it was just timed.
gmaxwell: you'll also note that they've kept increasing their fees and then even mad paying fees mandatory.
gmaxwell: This suggested to me that they totally misunderstood their problems. (and I reported that I believed this months ago too)
gmaxwell: e.g. they noticed lots of txn getting stuck, they didn't understand it was because they were producing invalid txn (even though it was reported to them) and so they thought it was just 'full blocks'
gmaxwell: and they increased their fees from 0.0001 to 0.0005 which was enough to may more than virtually every txn and then later to 0.001 which is basically astronomic. And then they made it mandatory.
gmaxwell: of course their stalled txn had nothing to do with fees.
Edit: Just to clarify, only quoted relevant parts (maybe I should have inserted "[...]" where applicable). Full text here: http://pastebin.com/DaSph9uT
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg5278421#msg5278421gmaxwell: wumpus: yea, I understand they had timed automatic reissues...
this was also something I didn't know prior to monday before last and is one of the other reasons my "they couldn't have lost much!" position softened to "I have no freeking clue."alpha125: gmaxwell: where did you find out abotu the automatic reissues?
gmaxwell: alpha125: from mtgox staff and magicaltux ... I had assumed previously that any reissues were manual via customer support but apparently it was just timed.
gmaxwell: you'll also note that they've kept increasing their fees and then even mad paying fees mandatory.
gmaxwell: This suggested to me that they totally misunderstood their problems. (and I reported that I believed this months ago too)
gmaxwell: e.g. they noticed lots of txn getting stuck, they didn't understand it was because they were producing invalid txn (even though it was reported to them) and so they thought it was just 'full blocks'
gmaxwell: and they increased their fees from 0.0001 to 0.0005 which was enough to may more than virtually every txn and then later to 0.001 which is basically astronomic. And then they made it mandatory.
gmaxwell: of course their stalled txn had nothing to do with fees.
Edit: Just to clarify, only quoted relevant parts (maybe I should have inserted "[...]" where applicable). Full text here: http://pastebin.com/DaSph9uT
Again, as its been said OVER and OVER in this thread:
- this is not about Karpeles "running away" with customer funds. Betting on Gox's honesty is a pretty safe bet, as Gox has proven its integrity for years
- this is about facts adding up and raising a lot of red flags: i) absurd explanations on unbelievable banking limits, which affect outgoing transfers only; ii) serious problems with LE ($6M seized) and other players (Coinlab - $6M gone) which resulted in loss of funds; iii) lack of transparency in their PR and possible incompetence in managing their business; iv) desperate moves to raise more and more fees (totally unjustified 5% "ransom fee" - 5% is a huge amount, folks; not halting trading when they have should; etc.)
When you add all that and you analyze their press releases, you can see that something very wrong is happening, and they are not being transparent with it. Despite of sturle's efforts to explain the unexplainable, the above facts remain. Anybody who works with banks on a regular basis knows that the "daily limit" is UTTER BULLSHIT, if you have some kind of limit (which normally YOU DON'T), you just adjust it to your volume - if you need to make a freaking $3M transfer, you do it and your bank charge you for it - that's their business model folks. If they aren't, that's because Gox (or their bank) is struggling with something, and that is RISKY.
Furthermore, numbers DO NOT LIE. The huge spread we have witnessed between Gox and the others comes for a reason. Sturle tried to convince us that he was making loads of money doing arbitrage, implying that the spread existed only because people is stupid and was not using the situation to their advantage because of fear, uncertainity and doubt. But let me tell you something: that's BS. Markets do not work that way. If there is a 20% arbitrage opportunity, which basically means "free money", arbitrageurs will take the opportunity and the gap will close almost instantly. If that doesn't happen, it is because it is simply not possible. I tried myself, for Christ sake, and I failed miserably because you cannot simply do arbitrage in such a volatile market if your funds are stuck on one of the ends FOR WEEKS.
Making a long story short: we are getting close to the tipping point. Will see what happens soon - but its not looking good. Anybody saying that Gox/Karpeles are thieves, etc. is just a noob or has a hidden agenda to push. But the fact remains: due to incompetence, legal pressure or whatever other reason not related to Gox's honesty, customers funds are at risk - and they have been for +10 months now. There has been plenty of time to get out, folks. In any case, now its time either to cash in huge winnings (eg. -> buying $100 coins on Gox) or to swallow a loss. Whatever happens, there has been PLENTY of information for everybody to make their choice.