I never bet on politics. It's too risky. Because if you don't know about politics, you will lose. Again, many times it is already clear who will win the next elections in many countries. Many times everyone thinks that this team will win, then the opposite happens. Overall, it's a high risky thing.
Betting on politics is for those who are involved in politics somehow or have certain sources of secret information. Politics is dirty games all over the world and politicians are always making all of us fool. We shall not be betting on politics if we have poor knowledge regarding it. Never ever rely on your gut feelings regarding politics.
I agree with you. Politics is a place where the most dirty things happen. Politicians make the opposite of everyone's way. I have seen many, previous election surveys fail very badly. If I had bet based on this survey, I would have lost a lot. That is why I do not gamble in politics.