Because of the context in which you put it, I imagine you did a fundamental analysis, which, you must take into account many possible events, many scenarios where you must recalculate, a simple market study does not apply due to volatility.

You may have had some kind of calculation taking into account the accumulation stage and making an approximation according to the first stage of Bitcoin accumulation and distribution.

The only thing is that although the stages are sometimes repeated, it is never the same, the circumstances change as time passes, you cannot compare the times, when a "Fundamental" arises, or an event that changes the world in a At any given time, a possible crash, among others, the study is invalidated.

If OP can provide a part of your study, we might have an idea of ​​what factors you have taken into account. For my part I could not make a prediction, if I know it will be worth more than $ 20k but I could not know when. According to Malkiel Burton, author of "A random walk on Wall Street" he emphasized a lot about fundamental analyzes, and concluded that they can be invalidated at the time of a Fundamental.