Well it's hype would probably take Joaquin Phoenix's the Joker to win this time. Or probably close. I've only watched the Irishman and Jojo Rabbit, along with the Joker, and though I agree that they deserve to be considered, the latter movie takes it for me. I'm not sure about Waves and why it's having that much odds going for it. Probably I'll try watching it first and then judge which movie deserves to win more.
The joker seems transcended from a villain to a main character just like how Harley Quinn portrayed from scuicide squad. Since The joker is more like a dramatic movie than being an action movie, I think it would win the best picture for me.