Most bears selling for the past month or so are sitting on huge losses now. Their losses and underwater shorts are actually the fuel for the next move up.

We downtrended for 4 months and just retraced half the losses in a few days. Maybe you aren't in a hurry, but I'm curious, what are you waiting for exactly before losing your bearish bias? $14K? Watching the market nearly double from the bottom seems like a long time to wait.

I've been trading for nearly a decade. The single biggest reversal signal you will ever see in a market is Wyckoff spring / headfake action like we saw last week. It's not to be ignored.


That's exactly how most pullbacks look: a downtrend within a larger uptrend. How do you distinguish between primary and counter trend?


This one?



That wasn't a bull pennant. Not even close. Bull pennants are short term consolidations proportionally, and they don't begin with 70% declines. That's why the comparisons to 2018 don't fit.


You mean the pennant breakdown that was fully retraced last week? I'm not too worried about shaking the trees a bit more. That's exactly what happens in the early goings of an uptrend.

That move was not unexpected either:


I'll tell you two things I've learned about fractal analysis over the years:
1) It does more harm than good because fractals strongly reinforce biases.
2) When you see two fractals on the same chart, they usually play out opposite. Perhaps to do with sentiment/trader expectations.

Recency bias means that everyone is looking at the July-October pennant breakdown and expecting the same fractal to play out again. It probably won't.


I'm honestly really glad you and so many others are still bearish. If everyone was bullish, we wouldn't go up.