I don't think that there is a 50% chance. In my opinion, at the most it is 20%.

And by using the term "alt season", if you mean all the altcoins rallying (just like the case in 2017), then I am afraid that your dreams may never come to fruition. Back in 2017, we had a lot of immature and greedy investors who pumped a lot of money in to the shitcoins. That is not going to repeat because many of these users exited after incurring losses and the remaining ones have learnt their lesson not to deal with shitcoins.

There can be an alt season in the future. But don't expect all the 10,000 plus alts to go up this time. The next rally (if it occurs) will be confined to a few dozen coins. The other shitcoins may move up temporarily under the influence of the genuine coins, but they will crash once the initial hype is over. Now the trick is to identify the best coins, but it will be like searching for a needle in the haystack.