"4 year cycle" is just a synonym for claiming that it's impossible for there to be a mining bubble and the artificial scarcity event known as the halving will always make the price go up and make miners profitable, and no miners will ever have to shut off. If you claim the price will automatically go up every halving, then that would automatically make Bitcoin a Ponzi scam. So which one is it, kids? Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scam or not?
It doesn't
automatically go up. It probably will based on historically increasing demand and the relationship between price and stock-to-flow ratio.
There is only a guarantee that new supply will dry up as Bitcoin moves towards zero inflation via the halvings. There can never be any guarantee about
demand though. We're all just speculating about that.