OK, back to this.
The only reason
you are correct here is because he was analyzing the wrong set of blocks,
which you didn't know until right now. The fuckup happened in a block previous to 600,000 -- read below.
IOW, NOT evidence.
It is glaringly a dispositive. During the previous 10,000 block period there were exactly 6 penalty transactions totaling 0.09746883 BTC.
Haha. Glaringly obvious indeed. Even when spoon-fed, you entirely miss the implication of my clearly-stated musing (see italic above).
[Blah blah blah (paraphrased) - irrelevant shit not in dispute. - ed]
If his counterparties were on the beneficial side of a stale closing tx, what is their incentive to issue a penalty? They stand to win more through just letting the mistaken stale tx broadcasts lie as is. Seems we need to at least consider that possibility before closing the case. As at least one scenario.
So far none of the 400 nodes connected to him reported receiving any funds.
Hmm. None of the 400 unjustly-enriched parties reported unjust enrichment. Whodathunkit?
What is more likely is he has the funds, can't access them, and they are far fewer than 4 BTC in total.
Sez you. Sure, it's a plausible argument. But it does not invalidate the alternative scenario which I present. Which, of course, is why I ask to see the evidence. Again, everything you present falls
far short of being dispositive.
There are LN experts working pretty hard to help this guy recover his funds.
What ever does that have to do with the assertion that your last link is mere hearsay? Do you not understand the word itself?
It seems like this guy did everything wrong on purpose. Its hard to believe someone would crash through several safeguards so recklessly if he cared at all about his BTC. My bet is when his funds are restored it will surface that the total "lost" was far less than 4 BTC.
Perhaps.
More germane, you have moved the goalposts from 'he made the whole thing up, case closed' to 'I kinda think sorta he might have exaggerated his losses'. Let us recall that this opened with an assertion made to the effect that it was all a lie, followed by me merely asking for evidence, for which you attacked me with the strawman of denial.
I don't know if you're being dishonest, or you are merely incapable of logic.