now it is the middle of the month, and ethereum has not moved from the beginning of this month. so I doubt your analysis can be realized. to be able to penetrate the price of just $ 200 ethereum seems difficult at this time. need more good news about ethereum to make it move, or waiting for bitcoin to move again.
If there is good news regarding the development of Ethereum, it will be able to become a big pump and Ethereum only takes a few days to reach the price of $ 250 USD this month. if $ 250 USD cannot be achieved this month, Christmas will be a good moment to increase the price of Crypto including Ethereum.