Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term Undecided

You make our current situation sound so dire, Bossian.

Do you remember that on October 25, we had 42% in 12 hours from $7,300 to $10,300, and if we get back to $7,300 over the following month or so (which would bring us to November 25), do you think that we are worse off merely because we went back to the starting point of what had happened in 12 hours?

Well, we gotta get back to $7,300 first, I suppose, but I doubt that the situation is as dire as you are making it out to be, even if we were to get below $6,400. What's so special about $6,400? Remember from April 1, to June 27, we went from $4,200 to $13,880? $6,400 does not even bring us back down to $4,200, but we would have to get down to $6,400 first, and we seem quite a ways off from $6,400, but hey, things happen fast in bitcoinlandia, so I would be prepared to buy, instead of thinking about selling and then end up being wrong in the even that BTC prices were to stop going down... .and surely we see those kinds of things happening in bitcoinlandia.

We have jonoiv still waiting for sub $6k for more than a 6 months, and we have some others who are still hoping for sub $3k, which yeah, they might get lucky, but I would rather be buying on the way down rather than taking some actions (such as selling now) and then regret it later.

I was looking closely yesterday at the technical analysis and it's clear the major support is around 6.4k, that's why this price is scary (for me, I may be wrong), on the other hand the price of 12.4k is very exciting. Of course we can go back above 10k, I hope so.

Frankly, I bought at the worst moment (9.3k), if we go close to 10k I will sell. Because right now I am not confident. BUT after selling everything I got at 10k I will wait for 12.4k. If we pass that price then I buy again even more (won't care about the small lack or earning between 10k and 12.4k because it won't matter much. I will feel much better and safer in selling at 10k and then wait, because above 12.4k it's basically free money (strong resistance). If we pass 12.4k then the long term trend is looking crazy good. My personal opinion of course Wink

best of luck to us.

If that system works for you, then so be it. I cannot be a hater, but seems like you are engaging in a lot of reliance on what is supposedly in the charts and your interpretation of that, and again, if you have gotten both good at it, and also able to employ systems in which you profit from either price direction, then you are likely in a good place, yet to me, it seems that you are kind of relying on price movements in one direction or another in the short term and historically, we have seen so many times that a variety of purported experts get the short term wrong - that's why I mentioned those two recent upwards explosive spurts.

Sure it is possible that anything can happen, but betting on down in what appears to be a bull market seems quite risky.

Yeah, I know there are several folks that are asserting that we are currently NOT in a bull market, but seems like wishful thinking to me. Even bitcoin does not seem to change back and forth from bear to bull to bear to bull... so if you are engaged in defining bear and bull in terms of short swings, I have difficulties relating, especially when it seems that our that there are pretty decent odds that our early 2019 price move from $4,200 to $13,880 had demonstrated that we had gotten out of our 2018 bear market.

Of course, we do not know for sure until after the fact, but if you are trying to predict exactly the correction level in a bull market versus trying to assert that we are in a bear market, and either theory seems filled with lots of risk.

Also, I don't play around with BIG plays like you, but buying at $9,300 might not be so bad if you had sold somewhere in the supra $11k or even higher, but yeah I suppose that there are a lot of scenarios that buying at $9,300 might not seem to be too good, unless you are just getting into bitcoin.

If you are just getting into bitcoin then buying at $9,300 might not be bad at all. Just keep buying, and accumulating. Selling above $10k seems quite risky, but then you get into the same issues about trying to figure out what is happening, because there are scenarios in which BTC prices might shoot the fuck past $13,880 and go into the sub $19k arena before correcting all the way back down to $10k, but that does not seem to be a scenario that your system anticipates very well... but surely such a price performance or some other weird and unexpected price movement could happen... bitcoin is known for such weird price movements, and I doubt that it is going to stop with the weird price movements any time soon, at least maybe not until BTC prices are well in the area of gold market cap or even quite higher before the manipulation forces will become more debilitated in their abilities to fuck with bitcoin's volatility.

I appreciate your opinion.
I first got into Bitcoin in July 2017, was very lucky that year obviously. But since February 2018 I am more into technical analysis and trading. What I saw in 2018 was mostly the price of Bitcoin dictated by trading tools and not much else. But well of course nothing is written in the stone. I am just very confident about this 12.4k price that we need to break. I am curious to see how it unfolds.