Relaying a follow-up message:
Im amazed that you dont comprehend how a hard fork airdrop works.
When the Core chain forks off by refusing to accept the legacy blocks which donate SegWit UTXO to the miners[1], then those who hodl in legacy or Core addresses will have received a free air-drop of Core shitcoins at the moment of the timestamp of offending legacy blocks. The hodler of legacy or Core address BTC has no choice and automatically then hodls a private/public key pair which is separately in the UTXO of both the legacy and Core forks. And thus according to the IRS, those who automatically received this diabolical free airdrop owe income tax at the market value on the free Core tokens airdrop at the time of the said timestamp. The market value will be whatever nosebleed BTC price before Craig starts his posited (and warned) SegWit donations attack (not actually an attack but as I explained in detail in this thread and (links to) other threads linked from this thread, rather its a poison pill self-defense economic, Schelling point, Nash equilibrium game theory of proof-of-work that prevents a proliferation of competing mutated hard/soft forks, which would otherwise dilute value via supply inflation and contentious politics/opinion).
Thus the huge problem for those who hodl in legacy or Core addresses is that we will receive the free airdrop of Core shitcoins whether we like it or not. And we will receive them as recorded by the timestamp on the blockchain (which the new IRS common (non)sense guidance designates for timing) when the market value of these soon-to-be-worthless Core tokens are still at whatever nosebleed BTC price the miners decide to run the price up to before the SegWit attack begins (posited and warned to begin at the May 14, 2020 halving). But as legacy address hodlers we will not be able to split our legacy and Core tokens until Craig has published his initially private legacy chain with the offending blocks, and thus by the time we can actually sell our Core shitcoins separately from our legacy BTC, the price of Core shitcoins will be essentially ~$0, because Craig will have dumped all this Core tokens on the exchanges (after splitting them from his legacy BTC on his initially private legacy chain) and the miners will begin jumping en masse from the Core chain to the recently published legacy chain thus driving the hashrate on the Core chain down severely meaning each new Core chain block will not be found for up to perhaps a week. So we will not be able to sell our Core shitcoins because they will be essentially worthless at that juncture, but yet the IRS will expect us to pay income tax on the full value of the Core shitcoins at the time of the fork as recorded by the timestamp on the blockchain when the price will still skyhigh before the attack began.
And the Core address hodlers are even more fucked than legacy address hodlers because their BTC on the legacy chain is anyone can spend (because P2SH is unrecognized by the legacy protocol) and will taken by legacy miners as donations to fund the readoption of the legacy protocol and forcing the Core shitcoin to fork-off. So Core address hodlers will owe the nosebleed high income tax, but will only hodl worth-less Core tokens and no valuable legacy BTC tokens. So how will they pay their huge tax bill? They are fucked.
On top of this, the posited attack will likely bankrupt most of the exchanges. And because of the attack, all exchange activity even on OTC markets might be locked up. So we will owe taxes but cant even sell any of our legacy BTC to pay the taxes. And P2P transactions will virtually impossible for most of us because:
You see the diabolical powers-that-be will run the BTC up to some very high price before the halving and SegWit attack fork-off, perhaps $30 100k. This is going to shock many people who will be unprepared because they ignored these warnings. If they hodl Core addresses and do not sell, they lose all the value. If they hodl legacy addresses, they will end up in a tax and liquidity nightmare if they do not sell at this high price before the halving. But most people will not sell because they will think the price is going much higher after the halving. This diabolical plan is so clever.
[1] Again Core is forking off, not vice versa, because legacy address hodlers automatically receive a free airdrop of Core tokens at the posited event, but Core address hodlers only retain their Core tokens and lose their legacy BTC which will be donated to the miners.
Meanwhile in other news:[/size]
And in other news Craig Wright explains/claims that Bitcoins miners will end up seizing BTC on behalf of coordinated government requests.
You mentioned in your video that some people think the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the coming May 14, 2020 halving. Im one of the proponents of the theory that the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the May 14, 2020 halving event.
A fundamental causation for my posited re-acceleration hypothesis is because I have analyzed the possibility that the legacy Bitcoin protocol is being readopted (analogous to the moonshot in the BTC price when legacy was first adopted in before 2013 and misdirection of adoption onto the impostor Core soft fork protocol) as warned by the powers-that-be. And I find evidence of this posited BTC price re-acceleration in the charts and also in the recent actions of some whales (c.f. also the Trilema.com/Dao attacker and what Bakkt did). All of the cryptocosm value will be refocused into the legacy Bitcoin with the coming poison pill game theory defense mechanism of the one proof-of-work chain to rule them all.
Below I will discuss some of the evidence of re-acceleration I find in the charts. Click the images to go to their source.
Readers may also be interested in my blog: McAfees Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoins ACCELERATING price
Lets start with your chart comparing the 4 year period prior to each of the 2 prior halving events and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event (3 cases total). Note the prior ATH of the current (i.e. top-most on your chart) case was nearer to the start of the four year period analogous to the prior (i.e. middle on your chart) case. Whereas, the final over the cliff drop to the bottom and the sudden and steep (i.e. more accelerated both in time and price) out that of that bottom for the current case is more similar to the first (i.e. bottom-most on your chart) case. Also notice for first (i.e. bottom-most) case that the rise in the price before the halving was not as great as for the prior (i.e. middle) case, but the rise after the halving was much more accelerated (both in time and price) for the first (i.e. bottom-most) case as compared to the prior (i.e. middle) case. Thus the BTC price rise after the halving for the current case should be more accelerated than the prior case:
Next lets refer to your chart comparing the level of the price at each subsequent halving event and the length of the reaccumulation (sic) phase before each halving event. Note that the prior (i.e. middle on this chart) case had both a higher price at and longer reaccumulation before its succeeding halving event than the first (i.e. left-most on this chart) case. Given an even longer reaccumulation before its succeeding halving event for current (i.e. right-most on this chart) case compared to the prior case, the BTC price should be even higher before and right at the coming May 14, 2020 halving as compared to the prior case:
Lets refer to the stock-to-flows (aka S/F) model below to see that the BTC price at the halving event in the prior case was 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price:
How much higher than the prior case should the price be at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event? Note in the charts below that the BTC price in your accumulation and expansion phases for the prior case were either below (at the same timing before the halving given by similar shade of green color) or at best only up to the S/F model price:
Whereas, the current case has already achieved 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price in this accumulation and expansion phase:
Thus we should expect the BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event to be accelerated 1.6 × 1.6 = 2.6 times the ~$8800 S/F model price at the coming halving event. Additionally the current case has even more reaccumulation time than the prior case to build an even higher BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event. Thus the price at the coming halving event could be 3 4 times $8800 or roughly $26 $35k. Additionally, Im positing double of (i.e. two times) those prices projections at the halving due to third-order derivative (i.e. the rate of increase in the acceleration) mathematical effects which I dont want to attempt to explain now.
Another reason the BTC price can front run the S/F model price rise at the halving is because PlanB recently unveiled the model.
Note I think the anonymous PlanB might be an agent (or an unwitting tool) of the bastard global elite who created Bitcoin are organizing the SegWit attack. PlanB (or someone at Twitter and Medium) banned and censored me from commenting on his Twitter and Medium blogs because I was getting too close to revealing these truths. I posit he has released this model to cause the market to front run the model and thus help achieve their goal of a nosebleed, moonshot BTC before the halving so that the hashrate difficulty will be so high when they initiate the SegWit donations attack that the Core protocol fork-off chain will become so slow that perhaps only a new block found every week or month. To drive the Core protocol fork-off to ~$0 price and complete their objective of surreptitiously concentrating most of the BTC in their own hands.
Also your projection for the ATH price after the coming halving is much, much too low. As I explained above, there is a reacceleration tweening between the prior and first cases. In those cases, the ATH price reached 3 and 10 times the S/F model price. Given the S/F model price will be $104k in 2021, the peak ATH should be at least $300k $1 million. And there is a front running acceleration, so that peak ATH price could be attained as early as the end of 2020 so that McAfee doesnt have to eat his dick. C.f. also my blog: McAfees Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoins ACCELERATING price
The current state of the RSI is indicating a sudden rise in the price is imminent analogous to 2013 (not 2017) for the reasons I explained above:
I thus expect the rise in the BTC price to mimic the entire year of 2013 from this point forward. A moonshot rise pre-halving, then a dip with the SegWit attack killing Core and focusing the cryptocosm on legacy Bitcoin, then legacy Bitcoin rising above $300k before the end of 2020.
Plausible reasons:
For the price objectives and timing over the next months until the Bitcoin halving event, I recently wrote in private email several days ago before the drop below $8600 and before LTC had dropped below $60:
My current scenario after studying carefully the fractal pattern correlation. The current U-shaped correction appears to be roughly 71% of the duration of the prior one earlier this year.
BTC should bottom on this current retracement below $8500 by Nov. 24. The ideal target is $8200. LTC will retrace to somewhere between $57 and $60.
On ~Nov 24, a spike up for LTC and BTC to ~$70 and ~$8700. Then a decline over next several days to $60 $64 and $8 $8.4k. Then another spike up on ~Dec. 5 to ~$75 and $9.7k. Then a decline over next couple of days to ~$65 and ~$8.5k. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up for LTC coupled with a slow rise for BTC to ~$80 and $8.7k. Then slow rise by ~Dec. 22 to ~$83 and $8.9k.
Thus I see LTC/BTC reaching only a maximum of 0.0093, although perhaps 0.0098 is possible on some intraday spike divergence for LTC and BTC. I would probably sell LTC at $80 and thus 0.0092 is likely the best I could achieve. Given an entry at 0.0069, that would be a 33% gain in BTC, if repurchasing BTC immediately after selling LTC. Those who entered at 0.006 might get a 50% gain in BTC if they time it perfectly.
Another strategy might be to sell maybe half at $75 and then if LTC drops to $65 repurchase for a 15% gain, else (if LTC does not drop) purchase BTC for ~$8.5k (because it seems BTC must drop otherwise it cant rise to $8.7k), so that is still a 27% gain in BTC is purchased LTC when LTC/BTC was 0.0069.
Frankly only a 33% potential gain (relative to BTC) is not all that incredibly enticing given the risk of the volatility of LTC. Timing may be end up elusive.
GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS
I did the same calculations for GRS and its about 3X leveraged in price compared to the prior fractal earlier this year. On ~Nov 24, GRS should rise to ~0.27 which if BTC is $8700, then GRS/BTC will be 0.000031. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up ~$0.48, and thus GRS/BTC 0.000055. So I think GRS/BTC has better leverage and can double your BTC, but you must have your sell limit orders waiting because the spikes can be completed in a couple of hours sometimes. A strategy would be to sell maybe half at $0.27 and attempt to reload at $0.23 or purchase BTC at $8700.
In this scenario, the rocket shot is timed perfectly with Armstrongs monumental ECM turn date, so ~Jan 1, 2020, a rocket shot to ~$116 and ~$12.5k. That will be the last chance to trade LTC for BTC. BTC may have an intraday (or next day) spike low of $11k. So if you sold at say $110 and repurchased $11.5k, that would be 0.096, thus increasing potential BTC gains to 40% (if purchased when LTC/BTC is 0.0069) or 65% if entered when LTC/BTC was 0.006. But thats going to be some chaotic timing. Hope the exchanges dont get slammed.
In this scenario, during the rest of January LTC will decline to ~$86 and BTC will oscillate but reach a peak of $13k. I wonder if we will get another flash crash in late January to $10k this time, mimicking the flash crash in April 2019.
In this timing scenario, before Feb 12 (2020), BTC will spike up again to $21k. Within a week a decline to perhaps ~$17.3k. Then another rocket shot to ~$32k by ~March 2.
The market would be somewhat confused at this point because the ATH would have been significantly exceeded well before the halving. Thus I would expect some sort of deeper and slightly longer correction. Maybe back to $21k again to throw many off the train who are looking to repurchase below the 2017 $20k ATH before the halving currently targeted for May 14:
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
That and including the uncertainty about whether the price will indeed go higher than ~$32k before any SegWit attack is why I will probably take all the cash I am going to need at $32k, then perhaps repurchase half of what I sold if the price drops to say $21k before the halving. Also I will be keeping my eye on the 111 DMA vs. twice the 350 DMA as mentioned in my prior email. Such an extended decline might be necessary to keep that 111 DMA from prematurely crossing down under twice the 350 DMA.
So then in April suddenly a moonshot to $50+k. Again my target is $78k but I will reaccess at that time after looking at all factors including where is the 350 DMA at that juncture.
McAfees Dick Math may be based on point-set topology. Also re-read the lengthy post I made in this thread.
The legacy BTC price is likely going to $1 million in 2020, but I posit the official Bitcoin Core (which is actually an impostor) is going towards ~$0 after the SegWit anyone can spend donations to the miners attack at the May 2020 halving event if Craig Wright fulfills his Long-term advance notice. Craig is indeed a fake Satoshi and his BSV is probably a red-herring, but his warning is probably reality. Read the linked threads entirely to learn why.
Everyone forgets, incorrectly thinks Bitcoins price is decelerating, and gets lulled to sleep. Here is a mathematical model of what you are referring to:
McAfees Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoins ACCELERATING price
Everyone seems to think Bitcoin is decelerating, but its actually accelerating. My theory as to why is because of the upcoming readoption of legacy Bitcoin and the destruction of the Bitcoin Core imposter soft-fork, thus focusing wealth as most people are kicked off of Bitcoin and their BTC is donated to the miners. Whales never sell, thus the liquid float will decrease. Everyone seems to think Bitcoin needs to scale transaction volume, but I posit that was never the intended purpose of Bitcoin when the global elite created it.
My (and apparently McAfees) theory is you are being deceived by mismatching your comparisons of peaks from different topological sets. See the above link to McAfees Dick Math.
Your $300k is also my lowest level target for 2020. But $1+ million may be more likely if you believe the (unpublished) math McAfee claims.
Instead I posit that everyone will be destroyed by the SegWit attack at the halving and then the price will go much, much higher than anyone expects. But this attack is going to hoist huge income taxes on everyone due to the free airdrop of the Core tokens when it is forced to hard fork-off.
The majority is always wrong, but never in exactly the same way. New tricks are the up the sleeves of our slave masters who created the 666 Bitcoin.
Quote from: Shelby
According to new IRS rulemaking, coins are received when they are manifest on the blockchain. Dont move your coins to the new blockchain, ergo you have not received them, ergo no tax due.
Unless of course you want to claim them. Thats a problem of your own making.
Unless of course you want to claim them. Thats a problem of your own making.
Im amazed that you dont comprehend how a hard fork airdrop works.
When the Core chain forks off by refusing to accept the legacy blocks which donate SegWit UTXO to the miners[1], then those who hodl in legacy or Core addresses will have received a free air-drop of Core shitcoins at the moment of the timestamp of offending legacy blocks. The hodler of legacy or Core address BTC has no choice and automatically then hodls a private/public key pair which is separately in the UTXO of both the legacy and Core forks. And thus according to the IRS, those who automatically received this diabolical free airdrop owe income tax at the market value on the free Core tokens airdrop at the time of the said timestamp. The market value will be whatever nosebleed BTC price before Craig starts his posited (and warned) SegWit donations attack (not actually an attack but as I explained in detail in this thread and (links to) other threads linked from this thread, rather its a poison pill self-defense economic, Schelling point, Nash equilibrium game theory of proof-of-work that prevents a proliferation of competing mutated hard/soft forks, which would otherwise dilute value via supply inflation and contentious politics/opinion).
Thus the huge problem for those who hodl in legacy or Core addresses is that we will receive the free airdrop of Core shitcoins whether we like it or not. And we will receive them as recorded by the timestamp on the blockchain (which the new IRS common (non)sense guidance designates for timing) when the market value of these soon-to-be-worthless Core tokens are still at whatever nosebleed BTC price the miners decide to run the price up to before the SegWit attack begins (posited and warned to begin at the May 14, 2020 halving). But as legacy address hodlers we will not be able to split our legacy and Core tokens until Craig has published his initially private legacy chain with the offending blocks, and thus by the time we can actually sell our Core shitcoins separately from our legacy BTC, the price of Core shitcoins will be essentially ~$0, because Craig will have dumped all this Core tokens on the exchanges (after splitting them from his legacy BTC on his initially private legacy chain) and the miners will begin jumping en masse from the Core chain to the recently published legacy chain thus driving the hashrate on the Core chain down severely meaning each new Core chain block will not be found for up to perhaps a week. So we will not be able to sell our Core shitcoins because they will be essentially worthless at that juncture, but yet the IRS will expect us to pay income tax on the full value of the Core shitcoins at the time of the fork as recorded by the timestamp on the blockchain when the price will still skyhigh before the attack began.
And the Core address hodlers are even more fucked than legacy address hodlers because their BTC on the legacy chain is anyone can spend (because P2SH is unrecognized by the legacy protocol) and will taken by legacy miners as donations to fund the readoption of the legacy protocol and forcing the Core shitcoin to fork-off. So Core address hodlers will owe the nosebleed high income tax, but will only hodl worth-less Core tokens and no valuable legacy BTC tokens. So how will they pay their huge tax bill? They are fucked.
On top of this, the posited attack will likely bankrupt most of the exchanges. And because of the attack, all exchange activity even on OTC markets might be locked up. So we will owe taxes but cant even sell any of our legacy BTC to pay the taxes. And P2P transactions will virtually impossible for most of us because:
[
]
Also keep in the mind that of the ~10 million BTC for which the private keys have not been lost, about ~7 million of them (last time I checked) are stored in SegWit addresses which will be donated to the legacy miners in 2020 if the SegWit attack occurs (which I think will be the event that drives the price of the legacy Bitcoin skyhigh). Thus the block reward can be perhaps orders-of-magnitude higher than normally, which as I say may facilitate mining with GPUs again until all of the SegWit donations have been taken (only so many can fit in each block).
Which btw, means that while the SegWit attack is ongoing, the transaction fee attached to your legacy Bitcoin transaction must be greater than the value of the SegWit donations that can be taken instead of including your transaction in a block. Which is why mostly none of us will be able to sell Bitcoin at the $1+ million price in 2020. By the time we are able to get our transaction included in the blockchain (2022?), the likelihood is much greater for us being walled off from doing so by the governments automatic nosebleed high income tax on obligatory airdropped Core tokens, capital controls, blockchain blacklists to be enforced by miners, proof-of-source-of-funds, KYC, AML, etc...
[ ]
Also keep in the mind that of the ~10 million BTC for which the private keys have not been lost, about ~7 million of them (last time I checked) are stored in SegWit addresses which will be donated to the legacy miners in 2020 if the SegWit attack occurs (which I think will be the event that drives the price of the legacy Bitcoin skyhigh). Thus the block reward can be perhaps orders-of-magnitude higher than normally, which as I say may facilitate mining with GPUs again until all of the SegWit donations have been taken (only so many can fit in each block).
Which btw, means that while the SegWit attack is ongoing, the transaction fee attached to your legacy Bitcoin transaction must be greater than the value of the SegWit donations that can be taken instead of including your transaction in a block. Which is why mostly none of us will be able to sell Bitcoin at the $1+ million price in 2020. By the time we are able to get our transaction included in the blockchain (2022?), the likelihood is much greater for us being walled off from doing so by the governments automatic nosebleed high income tax on obligatory airdropped Core tokens, capital controls, blockchain blacklists to be enforced by miners, proof-of-source-of-funds, KYC, AML, etc...
[ ]
You see the diabolical powers-that-be will run the BTC up to some very high price before the halving and SegWit attack fork-off, perhaps $30 100k. This is going to shock many people who will be unprepared because they ignored these warnings. If they hodl Core addresses and do not sell, they lose all the value. If they hodl legacy addresses, they will end up in a tax and liquidity nightmare if they do not sell at this high price before the halving. But most people will not sell because they will think the price is going much higher after the halving. This diabolical plan is so clever.
[1] Again Core is forking off, not vice versa, because legacy address hodlers automatically receive a free airdrop of Core tokens at the posited event, but Core address hodlers only retain their Core tokens and lose their legacy BTC which will be donated to the miners.
Meanwhile in other news:[/size]
The sheet, prefaced by a warning that its only a draft and not an actual document for filing taxes, asks at the top:
The main parts of the form, Additional Income and Adjustments to Income, both appear below this question.
Taxpayers who file Schedule 1 to report income or adjustments to income that cant be entered directly on Form 1040 should check the appropriate box to answer the virtual currency question. Taxpayers do not need to file Schedule 1 if their answer to this question is NO and they do not have to file Schedule 1 for any other purpose, the IRS said
Quote
At any time during 2019, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?
The main parts of the form, Additional Income and Adjustments to Income, both appear below this question.
Taxpayers who file Schedule 1 to report income or adjustments to income that cant be entered directly on Form 1040 should check the appropriate box to answer the virtual currency question. Taxpayers do not need to file Schedule 1 if their answer to this question is NO and they do not have to file Schedule 1 for any other purpose, the IRS said
And in other news Craig Wright explains/claims that Bitcoins miners will end up seizing BTC on behalf of coordinated government requests.
Quote from: Shelby
Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the Bitcoin halving and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.
[ ]
What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?
[ ]
This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU
[ ]
What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?
[ ]
This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU
You mentioned in your video that some people think the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the coming May 14, 2020 halving. Im one of the proponents of the theory that the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the May 14, 2020 halving event.
A fundamental causation for my posited re-acceleration hypothesis is because I have analyzed the possibility that the legacy Bitcoin protocol is being readopted (analogous to the moonshot in the BTC price when legacy was first adopted in before 2013 and misdirection of adoption onto the impostor Core soft fork protocol) as warned by the powers-that-be. And I find evidence of this posited BTC price re-acceleration in the charts and also in the recent actions of some whales (c.f. also the Trilema.com/Dao attacker and what Bakkt did). All of the cryptocosm value will be refocused into the legacy Bitcoin with the coming poison pill game theory defense mechanism of the one proof-of-work chain to rule them all.
Below I will discuss some of the evidence of re-acceleration I find in the charts. Click the images to go to their source.
Readers may also be interested in my blog: McAfees Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoins ACCELERATING price
Lets start with your chart comparing the 4 year period prior to each of the 2 prior halving events and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event (3 cases total). Note the prior ATH of the current (i.e. top-most on your chart) case was nearer to the start of the four year period analogous to the prior (i.e. middle on your chart) case. Whereas, the final over the cliff drop to the bottom and the sudden and steep (i.e. more accelerated both in time and price) out that of that bottom for the current case is more similar to the first (i.e. bottom-most on your chart) case. Also notice for first (i.e. bottom-most) case that the rise in the price before the halving was not as great as for the prior (i.e. middle) case, but the rise after the halving was much more accelerated (both in time and price) for the first (i.e. bottom-most) case as compared to the prior (i.e. middle) case. Thus the BTC price rise after the halving for the current case should be more accelerated than the prior case:
Next lets refer to your chart comparing the level of the price at each subsequent halving event and the length of the reaccumulation (sic) phase before each halving event. Note that the prior (i.e. middle on this chart) case had both a higher price at and longer reaccumulation before its succeeding halving event than the first (i.e. left-most on this chart) case. Given an even longer reaccumulation before its succeeding halving event for current (i.e. right-most on this chart) case compared to the prior case, the BTC price should be even higher before and right at the coming May 14, 2020 halving as compared to the prior case:
Lets refer to the stock-to-flows (aka S/F) model below to see that the BTC price at the halving event in the prior case was 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price:
How much higher than the prior case should the price be at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event? Note in the charts below that the BTC price in your accumulation and expansion phases for the prior case were either below (at the same timing before the halving given by similar shade of green color) or at best only up to the S/F model price:
Whereas, the current case has already achieved 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price in this accumulation and expansion phase:
Thus we should expect the BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event to be accelerated 1.6 × 1.6 = 2.6 times the ~$8800 S/F model price at the coming halving event. Additionally the current case has even more reaccumulation time than the prior case to build an even higher BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event. Thus the price at the coming halving event could be 3 4 times $8800 or roughly $26 $35k. Additionally, Im positing double of (i.e. two times) those prices projections at the halving due to third-order derivative (i.e. the rate of increase in the acceleration) mathematical effects which I dont want to attempt to explain now.
Another reason the BTC price can front run the S/F model price rise at the halving is because PlanB recently unveiled the model.
Note I think the anonymous PlanB might be an agent (or an unwitting tool) of the bastard global elite who created Bitcoin are organizing the SegWit attack. PlanB (or someone at Twitter and Medium) banned and censored me from commenting on his Twitter and Medium blogs because I was getting too close to revealing these truths. I posit he has released this model to cause the market to front run the model and thus help achieve their goal of a nosebleed, moonshot BTC before the halving so that the hashrate difficulty will be so high when they initiate the SegWit donations attack that the Core protocol fork-off chain will become so slow that perhaps only a new block found every week or month. To drive the Core protocol fork-off to ~$0 price and complete their objective of surreptitiously concentrating most of the BTC in their own hands.
Also your projection for the ATH price after the coming halving is much, much too low. As I explained above, there is a reacceleration tweening between the prior and first cases. In those cases, the ATH price reached 3 and 10 times the S/F model price. Given the S/F model price will be $104k in 2021, the peak ATH should be at least $300k $1 million. And there is a front running acceleration, so that peak ATH price could be attained as early as the end of 2020 so that McAfee doesnt have to eat his dick. C.f. also my blog: McAfees Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoins ACCELERATING price
The current state of the RSI is indicating a sudden rise in the price is imminent analogous to 2013 (not 2017) for the reasons I explained above:
I thus expect the rise in the BTC price to mimic the entire year of 2013 from this point forward. A moonshot rise pre-halving, then a dip with the SegWit attack killing Core and focusing the cryptocosm on legacy Bitcoin, then legacy Bitcoin rising above $300k before the end of 2020.
I really thought that once the price had moved into late 4 figures and 5 figures the percentages of the moves would be radically lower. People would be excited by a couple of hundred bucks. Yet it can still lose or gain 30-40% in a single day just as it could when it was 2 figures.
I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.
If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.
I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.
If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.
Plausible reasons:
- Refer to my above readoption and thus reacceleration theory (which I know you think is loony and conspiratorial).
- The IRS ruled that spending any amount of digital virtual currency is a taxable event, thus hopeless for Bitcoin being adopted more as a currency.
- Bitcoin is being prepped as a 666 global reserve currency, to be used by $billionaires only. The coming SegWit attack will kickoff and destroy all the minions who think they own some cryptocurrency but will soon find out they do not.
- "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." (i.e. acceleration or second derivatives):
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-09-15/albert-bartlett-on-message-about-exponential-growth-to-the-end/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8
With exponential growth, the lily pond can be 50% covered on the 29th day and on the morning of the 30th day, 100% covered with lilies.
Just because we cant see visually the fact that the price is about to soon obviously front run the halving, does not mean the front running isnt glaringly obvious mathematically. The front running is very well developed already. Most of you just cant see it so glaringly yet because your eyes are not visualizing math.
For the price objectives and timing over the next months until the Bitcoin halving event, I recently wrote in private email several days ago before the drop below $8600 and before LTC had dropped below $60:
Quote from: myself in email
Quote from: myself in email
IMPORTANT. MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS.
Strangely the fractal pattern at the current juncture for LTC/USD could be correlated to either early to mid Feb 2019 or Jan 10 2019. It appears LTC may be accelerating in time (but not in proportional price) compared to the prior fractal pattern earlier this year. So perhaps LTC will not decline below $60 again in 2019.
Whereas, BTC appears to not be accelerating in time but is accelerating in proportional price.
By proportional price, I mean compare the price rises from the prior $22 and $3102 bottoms as the difference in price from the bottom divided by the price drop from the cliff edge at $56 and $6550.
The calculation shows that LTC is 93% and BTC is 260% (2.6X) of the proportional price rises thus far compared to the prior fractal.
Thus I compute projected prices for LTC of $82, $116, and $158. And for BTC three consecutive monthly highs of $13k, $21k, and $32k.
But those prices do not have to occur at the same time, especially not the $82.
It seems the only way to fulfill the 0.01 LTC/BTC target is for LTC/USD to hit $82 while BTC/USD drops to $8200. Then the $116 can occur with a rocket shot in BTC to $13k. I was expecting that rocket shot at start of February, but everything may be accelerating in time.
Recently @infofront cited a Twitter post that said the LTC miners are preparing to disconnect their machines and pumping the LTC price so they can get out and liquidate their mining equipment (and LTC) at the best prices. Apparently they expect BTC dominance to return soon and they want to cash out.
BTC/USD may decline to $8200 before end of November with LTC rising to $82 as the very short altcoin season bleeds BTC for a month only. Then BTC slowly rising to $9600 before end of 2019. Then a rocket shot to $13k on Armstrongs ECM turn date in the start of January. With LTC rising to $116. Then $158 and $21k in February. In March BTC hits $32k and LTC and all altcoins are declining. In April BTC goes supernova to $50+k. My target for a spike high was $78k.
Lets revisit what may end up being a very, very important blog, perhaps even more important than Plan Bs stock-to-flows model:
https://medium.com/@positivecrypto/the-golden-ratio-multiplier-c2567401e12a
Focus on this chart:
Interestingly at the recent $13.8k high, the ratio to the 350 DMA was 2.4. That places it between the red and purple lines. Which thus corresponds to a tweening between the peaks in Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. Whereas the corresponding peak in 2015 commensurately before the halving was only up to the green line, so current fractal pattern is not corresponding to the 5 multiplier. And if we do get a rocket shot into the May (actually late April) 2020 halving, then the chart is going to look very fractally similar to the 2013 rocket shot.
So this means (as I had posited previously) that the multiplier for the coming peak in late April 2020 should be between 8 and 13. The 350 DMA is currently $7k and will rise to greater than $10k. Even if the multiplier does decline to 3 as that blog posits, that is still going to be in excess of $30k for the peak. So perhaps my $32k will be the peak and perhaps the rocket shot to $13k will not begin until February 2020.
However, I assert that the legacy Bitcoin is being readopted, which will cause a stampede effect and thus a reversion to the 8 or perhaps 10 multiplier. Again 8 would place it near to my $78k expectation.
Also the above linked Medium blog gives a very useful metric for timing the ATH, when the 111 DMA crossed over 2 multiplied by the 350 DMA. We should remember to watch for that. So estimating now roughly when the 3.5 month average price is higher than somewhere above $20+k. So if we take my 3 consecutive month price estimates $13k, $21k, and $32k and presuming some acceleration along the way to average is weighted more towards the lower prices. Also those are peak prices, with dips in between. And the 350 DMA is likely to be higher than $10k. So a quick moon shot to $50+k in April after a dip from $32k in March, is within the realm of mathematical possibility.
$32k is the minimum for the ATH before May 2020, presuming my thesis is correct that the price will be pumped in advance of a posited SegWit attack at the halving.
Interestingly the 350 DMA should be ~8+k by early January, so a 1.6 multiplier would be $13k. By February should be $8.5+k thus 2 to 2.4 multiplier provides my $21k target (remember the tweening). By March $9 $10k, so the 3 4 multiplier will provide my $32k target.
Strangely the fractal pattern at the current juncture for LTC/USD could be correlated to either early to mid Feb 2019 or Jan 10 2019. It appears LTC may be accelerating in time (but not in proportional price) compared to the prior fractal pattern earlier this year. So perhaps LTC will not decline below $60 again in 2019.
Whereas, BTC appears to not be accelerating in time but is accelerating in proportional price.
By proportional price, I mean compare the price rises from the prior $22 and $3102 bottoms as the difference in price from the bottom divided by the price drop from the cliff edge at $56 and $6550.
The calculation shows that LTC is 93% and BTC is 260% (2.6X) of the proportional price rises thus far compared to the prior fractal.
Thus I compute projected prices for LTC of $82, $116, and $158. And for BTC three consecutive monthly highs of $13k, $21k, and $32k.
But those prices do not have to occur at the same time, especially not the $82.
It seems the only way to fulfill the 0.01 LTC/BTC target is for LTC/USD to hit $82 while BTC/USD drops to $8200. Then the $116 can occur with a rocket shot in BTC to $13k. I was expecting that rocket shot at start of February, but everything may be accelerating in time.
Recently @infofront cited a Twitter post that said the LTC miners are preparing to disconnect their machines and pumping the LTC price so they can get out and liquidate their mining equipment (and LTC) at the best prices. Apparently they expect BTC dominance to return soon and they want to cash out.
BTC/USD may decline to $8200 before end of November with LTC rising to $82 as the very short altcoin season bleeds BTC for a month only. Then BTC slowly rising to $9600 before end of 2019. Then a rocket shot to $13k on Armstrongs ECM turn date in the start of January. With LTC rising to $116. Then $158 and $21k in February. In March BTC hits $32k and LTC and all altcoins are declining. In April BTC goes supernova to $50+k. My target for a spike high was $78k.
Lets revisit what may end up being a very, very important blog, perhaps even more important than Plan Bs stock-to-flows model:
https://medium.com/@positivecrypto/the-golden-ratio-multiplier-c2567401e12a
Focus on this chart:
Interestingly at the recent $13.8k high, the ratio to the 350 DMA was 2.4. That places it between the red and purple lines. Which thus corresponds to a tweening between the peaks in Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. Whereas the corresponding peak in 2015 commensurately before the halving was only up to the green line, so current fractal pattern is not corresponding to the 5 multiplier. And if we do get a rocket shot into the May (actually late April) 2020 halving, then the chart is going to look very fractally similar to the 2013 rocket shot.
So this means (as I had posited previously) that the multiplier for the coming peak in late April 2020 should be between 8 and 13. The 350 DMA is currently $7k and will rise to greater than $10k. Even if the multiplier does decline to 3 as that blog posits, that is still going to be in excess of $30k for the peak. So perhaps my $32k will be the peak and perhaps the rocket shot to $13k will not begin until February 2020.
However, I assert that the legacy Bitcoin is being readopted, which will cause a stampede effect and thus a reversion to the 8 or perhaps 10 multiplier. Again 8 would place it near to my $78k expectation.
Also the above linked Medium blog gives a very useful metric for timing the ATH, when the 111 DMA crossed over 2 multiplied by the 350 DMA. We should remember to watch for that. So estimating now roughly when the 3.5 month average price is higher than somewhere above $20+k. So if we take my 3 consecutive month price estimates $13k, $21k, and $32k and presuming some acceleration along the way to average is weighted more towards the lower prices. Also those are peak prices, with dips in between. And the 350 DMA is likely to be higher than $10k. So a quick moon shot to $50+k in April after a dip from $32k in March, is within the realm of mathematical possibility.
$32k is the minimum for the ATH before May 2020, presuming my thesis is correct that the price will be pumped in advance of a posited SegWit attack at the halving.
Interestingly the 350 DMA should be ~8+k by early January, so a 1.6 multiplier would be $13k. By February should be $8.5+k thus 2 to 2.4 multiplier provides my $21k target (remember the tweening). By March $9 $10k, so the 3 4 multiplier will provide my $32k target.
My current scenario after studying carefully the fractal pattern correlation. The current U-shaped correction appears to be roughly 71% of the duration of the prior one earlier this year.
BTC should bottom on this current retracement below $8500 by Nov. 24. The ideal target is $8200. LTC will retrace to somewhere between $57 and $60.
On ~Nov 24, a spike up for LTC and BTC to ~$70 and ~$8700. Then a decline over next several days to $60 $64 and $8 $8.4k. Then another spike up on ~Dec. 5 to ~$75 and $9.7k. Then a decline over next couple of days to ~$65 and ~$8.5k. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up for LTC coupled with a slow rise for BTC to ~$80 and $8.7k. Then slow rise by ~Dec. 22 to ~$83 and $8.9k.
Thus I see LTC/BTC reaching only a maximum of 0.0093, although perhaps 0.0098 is possible on some intraday spike divergence for LTC and BTC. I would probably sell LTC at $80 and thus 0.0092 is likely the best I could achieve. Given an entry at 0.0069, that would be a 33% gain in BTC, if repurchasing BTC immediately after selling LTC. Those who entered at 0.006 might get a 50% gain in BTC if they time it perfectly.
Another strategy might be to sell maybe half at $75 and then if LTC drops to $65 repurchase for a 15% gain, else (if LTC does not drop) purchase BTC for ~$8.5k (because it seems BTC must drop otherwise it cant rise to $8.7k), so that is still a 27% gain in BTC is purchased LTC when LTC/BTC was 0.0069.
Frankly only a 33% potential gain (relative to BTC) is not all that incredibly enticing given the risk of the volatility of LTC. Timing may be end up elusive.
GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS
I did the same calculations for GRS and its about 3X leveraged in price compared to the prior fractal earlier this year. On ~Nov 24, GRS should rise to ~0.27 which if BTC is $8700, then GRS/BTC will be 0.000031. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up ~$0.48, and thus GRS/BTC 0.000055. So I think GRS/BTC has better leverage and can double your BTC, but you must have your sell limit orders waiting because the spikes can be completed in a couple of hours sometimes. A strategy would be to sell maybe half at $0.27 and attempt to reload at $0.23 or purchase BTC at $8700.
In this scenario, the rocket shot is timed perfectly with Armstrongs monumental ECM turn date, so ~Jan 1, 2020, a rocket shot to ~$116 and ~$12.5k. That will be the last chance to trade LTC for BTC. BTC may have an intraday (or next day) spike low of $11k. So if you sold at say $110 and repurchased $11.5k, that would be 0.096, thus increasing potential BTC gains to 40% (if purchased when LTC/BTC is 0.0069) or 65% if entered when LTC/BTC was 0.006. But thats going to be some chaotic timing. Hope the exchanges dont get slammed.
In this scenario, during the rest of January LTC will decline to ~$86 and BTC will oscillate but reach a peak of $13k. I wonder if we will get another flash crash in late January to $10k this time, mimicking the flash crash in April 2019.
In this timing scenario, before Feb 12 (2020), BTC will spike up again to $21k. Within a week a decline to perhaps ~$17.3k. Then another rocket shot to ~$32k by ~March 2.
The market would be somewhat confused at this point because the ATH would have been significantly exceeded well before the halving. Thus I would expect some sort of deeper and slightly longer correction. Maybe back to $21k again to throw many off the train who are looking to repurchase below the 2017 $20k ATH before the halving currently targeted for May 14:
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
That and including the uncertainty about whether the price will indeed go higher than ~$32k before any SegWit attack is why I will probably take all the cash I am going to need at $32k, then perhaps repurchase half of what I sold if the price drops to say $21k before the halving. Also I will be keeping my eye on the 111 DMA vs. twice the 350 DMA as mentioned in my prior email. Such an extended decline might be necessary to keep that 111 DMA from prematurely crossing down under twice the 350 DMA.
So then in April suddenly a moonshot to $50+k. Again my target is $78k but I will reaccess at that time after looking at all factors including where is the 350 DMA at that juncture.
Quote from: Shelby
It's just too exaggerated to give a random numbers while the market price today is under $9,000.
McAfees Dick Math may be based on point-set topology. Also re-read the lengthy post I made in this thread.
The legacy BTC price is likely going to $1 million in 2020, but I posit the official Bitcoin Core (which is actually an impostor) is going towards ~$0 after the SegWit anyone can spend donations to the miners attack at the May 2020 halving event if Craig Wright fulfills his Long-term advance notice. Craig is indeed a fake Satoshi and his BSV is probably a red-herring, but his warning is probably reality. Read the linked threads entirely to learn why.
55k is definitely not too high if you look at the history of Bitcoin. Even 100k is not too high.
In 2017 we went from 900 to 20k in a year. When we broke previous ATH we went times 20! Breaking 20k would take us to 200k if it happens again. I know we can't compare because it takes a lot more money to reach those levels but when we were below 1 k people were talking about the 2013 bull market and saying the same thing that we went from 300 to 1000 in a month but a 3x rise from ATH won't happen because it's a lot of money. Do you even remember today what people were saying when we were going through 3k? No? I don't remember it too because it was so fast.
In 2017 we went from 900 to 20k in a year. When we broke previous ATH we went times 20! Breaking 20k would take us to 200k if it happens again. I know we can't compare because it takes a lot more money to reach those levels but when we were below 1 k people were talking about the 2013 bull market and saying the same thing that we went from 300 to 1000 in a month but a 3x rise from ATH won't happen because it's a lot of money. Do you even remember today what people were saying when we were going through 3k? No? I don't remember it too because it was so fast.
Everyone forgets, incorrectly thinks Bitcoins price is decelerating, and gets lulled to sleep. Here is a mathematical model of what you are referring to:
McAfees Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoins ACCELERATING price
i believe that the more we move forward as the market size grows, the less drastic the big swings are going to be. meaning both rises and falls are going to happen in a more reasonable percentages. it is about more adoption and more packed order books that makes it so that when a big buy or a sell take place the price wouldn't jump up or down 30%!
so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead
so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead
Everyone seems to think Bitcoin is decelerating, but its actually accelerating. My theory as to why is because of the upcoming readoption of legacy Bitcoin and the destruction of the Bitcoin Core imposter soft-fork, thus focusing wealth as most people are kicked off of Bitcoin and their BTC is donated to the miners. Whales never sell, thus the liquid float will decrease. Everyone seems to think Bitcoin needs to scale transaction volume, but I posit that was never the intended purpose of Bitcoin when the global elite created it.
My (and apparently McAfees) theory is you are being deceived by mismatching your comparisons of peaks from different topological sets. See the above link to McAfees Dick Math.
Your $300k is also my lowest level target for 2020. But $1+ million may be more likely if you believe the (unpublished) math McAfee claims.
in 2012 and 2016 halving, people still put a lot of doubts in bitcoin saying bitcoin will have zero value, majority did not believe that bitcoin will be worthy in the future and then the price skyrocketed, proven they all wrong.
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?
Instead I posit that everyone will be destroyed by the SegWit attack at the halving and then the price will go much, much higher than anyone expects. But this attack is going to hoist huge income taxes on everyone due to the free airdrop of the Core tokens when it is forced to hard fork-off.
The majority is always wrong, but never in exactly the same way. New tricks are the up the sleeves of our slave masters who created the 666 Bitcoin.