The community seems to agree that we will see bitcoin at 50-100k, people are predicting it, doesnt matter if its an expert or not. This rise in price is for the most part possible because of the halving next year.
One major problem that no one is talking about is scalability, in 2017 we saw 250k transactions waiting to be sent and fees up to 100$ and as far as i know that problem isnt solved. Sure we have a stronger Lignting network but it is not used by the majority of transactions and probably not ready for it.
With this problem still active how can we see a the price everyone is predicting?
And what if we consider the fact that there are a lot of hodlers? For most of them tx fees aren't huge opportunity cause they rarely spend, well it means nothing btw.
The reason we can see price that everyone predicts is that you already know halving reduces number of bitcoins mined per block which to translate means 1/2 of current reward. In order to keep mining and miners, we need high price to make mining profitable again. Halving just pushes us to rise price in order to keep mining.
Also you mentioned correctly, because of lighting network (despite the fact that it's not used massively), people hope that they'll be able to spend bitcoin with low fees. Some LN users and some regular users in overall will cause normal rise in tx fees which won't be critical.
It depends to be fair, obviously, a lot of the people using bitcoin nowadays are mostly in it to make large amounts of profit, and will likely not even sell their BTC until the profit is reached, and this makes the network easier to manage, ofc.
But, when bitcoin does become more adopted and popular, we are 100 percent going to see more transactions, which means higher transaction costs and slower transaction confirmation - which can be easily countered, if we get more miners in the coming years where bitcoin makes it big.
Yes of course, depending on when the profit is reached.
Does the amount of miners matter when it comes to amount of transactions? Isn't the size per block an issue even if there will be more miners in the future?
I believe that if we will see bitcoin at 50k+ without Lightning Network or an similar idea we need to do it slow, i don't believe we can reach that high in a few months.