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Re Shelby Moore's theory of forced SegWit donations, I would suggest that there might be a way to see as the next months go by.

On the Long range advance notice! thread, I mentioned several block winners (pools) and listed the first six alphanumerics of their receiving wallets.   I examined 100 recent blocks to see who won, and their receiving addresses.  I chose 100 to get a reasonable sample to examine (blocks 604143 - 604242).  Of the 17 unique addresses (winners), seven were SegWit (3....) or Native SegWit addresses (bc1q....).  The "3" and the "bc1q" addresses won 33 of those 100 blocks.

My data is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pLWVImy9E8O9A3yY4RcwkL-HZeiAFTcSudu8oTpk90I/edit?usp=sharing


I submit that the miners (who we presume are not dummies) will not allow their BTC from 3s to be stolen, so soon before we should expect that those SW receiving addresses would be changed to Legacy addresses (1....).

Perhaps all the advance notice we need is to observe if/when the above miners using SW addresses to switch them over to Legacy addresses in the run-up to (or perhaps just after) the May 2020 Halvening.

If they suddenly start switching..., then they would probably have a very good reason.

Your comments encouraged!