This is the scenario I fear. It may be possible that the halvening is priced in already and, although prices below 3k are unlikely, there will be no new ATH until the next halvening (one in 2024). Five years of ice age, pain and false hopes. Personally I do not plan to sell my main stash, but I am thinking about trading (that is, about buying a bit lower and selling a bit higher, not accumulating), because holding may be a very long-term game.
I'm leaning the other way. I think this halving will have the biggest effect. After this one it'll be subtler and start to tail off.
There are more on and off ramps than ever and some of them like Bakkt and the Cash app alone have the potential to be several times bigger than the entirety of what went before. Chuck in inflation dropping to levels seen in conventional currencies and just over only 10% of all coins left to arrive in the next 120 years and that's a pretty darned potent combo.