What 2018 miner capitulation?
Glad you asked, because I don't even know what that phrase means--not to mention what significance it has or why it might lead bitcoin to plummet to $3800.
What Is Capitulation?
Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains in any security or market by selling their positions during periods of declines. Capitulation can happen at any time, but typically happens during high volume trading and extended declines for securities. A market correction or bear market often leads investors to capitulate or panic sell. The term is a derived from a military term which refers to surrender.
miners are fundamentally investors too---originally it was the
only form of bitcoin investment, before there were liquid markets. when a mining operation is loss-making and the outlook is dire enough, the operator cuts their losses and capitulates just like any other investor.
the OP is suggesting that the 11/7 difficulty drop is the beginning of a trend.
All that said, I don't think the market is headed back to the $3k range. It's possible, true. Probable? I don't think so.
the 200wma---which served as
the bottom in 2015 and again in 2018---is around $5000 now. going back to the $3000s at this point would suggest that bitcoin's long term bull trend is dead.