Erm, both halvings so far have been duds on the day. Not a lot happened. I expect it to be no different this time.
On the day, sure.
In both 2012 and 2016 though, BTC rallied hard prior to the halving itself. From June to August 2012, the price went up 219%. From April to June 2016, the price went up 106%. Litecoin's 560% rally this year should also be partly attributed to halving hype. Just like Bitcoin in 2012 and 2016, the selloff began months before the actual top.
For price
not to be marked up like previous cycles, there would need to be a reduction in demand. Lowering the inflation rate means that all else equal, price should rise, since miners represent a significant portion of active market supply.