Re: Beginner’s giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC]
Important questions to related to this giveaway:
- How many blocks are generated per hour?
- What does mining difficulty mean?
- Whats a mining difficulty adjustment?
- When are such adjustments done?
- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?
Although I could try to answer all those questions, there's a much simpler way: extrapolation! During the past month, the exact same questions were valid, but they've already been answered on the blockchain.- How many blocks are generated per hour?
- What does mining difficulty mean?
- Whats a mining difficulty adjustment?
- When are such adjustments done?
- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?
The only real variable that's left is the Bitcoin price: if it goes up a lot, the hashrate will go up. But I don't expect it to change much in just a month.
My guess
We're in the same timezone, so that's easy. There are 30 days and 2 hours left. The current latest block is 606211.
Going back 30 days and 2 hours, we're looking at November 1, 20:00h. Now all I have to do is find the closest block: 601943.
The difference: 606211-601943=4268 blocks.
My estimate: 606211+4268=610479
My guess for the first block of 2020: 610479.
I don't think it's very likely to be correct though: 4268 blocks is less than what's expected in 30 days, 2 hours: (30*24+2)*6=4332, and at increasing hashrate miners are usually a bit faster than what's expected. So it could be the hashrate dropped in the past month (due to the price drop), and if that's the case, the hashrate has to continue dropping for my prediction to become true.
I love educated guesses
Unless this was for Beginners only? The title makes it look that way, but the rest of the topic doesn't look like it.