2012-08-16 Peak at 16.41
2012-10-26 Low before next runup at 9.50
71 Day Difference, 42% drop
2013-04-09 Peak at 259.34
2013-07-05 Low before next runup at 63.08
87 Days 75% Drop
2013-11-29 Peak at 1163
2013-02-20 Low before next runup at 530?
83 Days 54% drop?
I'd say that considering 530 the bottom before the next runup is well within reason... and if it isn't, its pretty darn close to the end of the bear market.
These numbers pulled using bitcoinwisdom, bitstamp Prices.
This ignores the 2011 bubble ratio (~1:16), which would have us back down to low double digits.
I don't think the "bubble projection method" is necessarily informative anyway.