Re: Calling top at $16500 (NEW 17th Jan: $4,100 bottom called)
Well when I see your chart posted in the first pages here, that was a good tool to make money.
Posted in February 2018
The chart was not perfect but it clearly predicted the peak of mid-2019. Frankly impressive, one of the best "long term" prediction I have seen. Hope you followed your own advice
On topic, even though you are no trader I think the forum would appreciate your unbiased opinion as the following months unfold, even though unpopular opinions (= bearish views) are not appreciated by everyone here.
I disagree about the two kinds of charts that you made, because I see you equating the price decline in 2014 and 2018. And why did the bear market in 2014 only occur until 2015? while the bear market in 2018 is until around 2021?Posted in February 2018
The chart was not perfect but it clearly predicted the peak of mid-2019. Frankly impressive, one of the best "long term" prediction I have seen. Hope you followed your own advice
On topic, even though you are no trader I think the forum would appreciate your unbiased opinion as the following months unfold, even though unpopular opinions (= bearish views) are not appreciated by everyone here.
if you should look at the bear market patterns of 2014 and 2018, then in the bear market in 2018 it should also occur only for one year, namely up to 2019. then on what basis did you write in 2021 the price of the BTC was only $ 2438 whereas what I know after bitcoin halving one year later there will be a bull market, as has happened in 2016-2017. if there is a clear reason your analysis will be highly appreciated.
I explained it in the acccomponying post at the time. Essentially I think that because the market is bigger it has more momentum and crowd psychology type moves take longer to play out...
Assuming the initial sell-offs are correlated in magnitude, we can see that this market is playing out slower - expected as its bigger. Approx 2.8 times slower to be exact.
If we plug the % moves, and the duration (x2.83) into the current ATH we get a *very* simplistic picture of what would happen if this plays out like gox.
If we plug the % moves, and the duration (x2.83) into the current ATH we get a *very* simplistic picture of what would happen if this plays out like gox.