Its impossible to have one or two coins in crypto space because one or two coins can't solve all the problems we have in this world in every aspect of technology or others, if you want to keep a coin for a long time make sure the coin or token solves one or two problems in crypto space or the world, this type of coins don't die easily because they have real use cases, its simple as that
Every coins has same change to survive, you're right but I believe every coins solve something and that's why developer launch it as a project. Old strategy is only trading and investing use bitcoin, this is psychology trends leader will stay on top. Unfortunately I already leave crypto market, so I can't use your method but I'll use it next year.
Just focusing on the real problem-solving skills of the team is not a good idea, sooner or later the degradation will hit that project too. The greedy human psychology will force the investor to look for another project after liquidating the invested funds on the first project. And it becomes a loop like in other financial markets. The next year will be interesting to watch due to the overestimated expectations of the investors after the long bear market.