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Re: "HCP's (at least) one month long experiment of the Arakne Trading Bot"™
by
suchmoon
on 05/12/2019, 18:18:52 UTC
⭐ Merited by pooya87 (1)
could you please also add an ELI5 of the strategy that the bot is using to make this profit. i checked the main thread, it only had a simple 2 line explanation inside a picture that didn't have that much details.

it seems like the bot is using some sort of martingale "gambling" strategy and it also seems to me like it only performs well when the market is moving in a fixed direction (eg. from Nov. 30 to Dec. 4) and makes small profits during that time but if there is any change in the direction or any kind of volatility (eg. Dec. 4) it fails and leads to a big loss.

That's pretty much it. There is no magic and unlike dice gambling this uses 20x leverage so it only needs a very small move (like ~$200 in this example) in the wrong direction to fuck it up. Given BTC volatility, do you really want to gamble against it moving $200 in the wrong direction?

This also shows that CryptoSparks basically faked the backtest (at best made the "strategy" fit historical data) to make the line look so smooth up-and-up.