Re: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?
What 2018 miner capitulation?
Glad you asked, because I don't even know what that phrase means--not to mention what significance it has or why it might lead bitcoin to plummet to $3800. That would be one hell of a drop, nearly 50% lower than where it currently is. And if that were to happen, altcoins would probably get hammered even worse. As usually people trying to find a connection out of nothing when the reality was totally different!
Quote
The extrapolated price comes from the "2018 miner capitulation" that caused the price to drop 50%.
First, miners follow the price, not the price of the miners.
What OP forgets to add in his prediction or in his analysis is that the price was going down since June, when the hash rate reached the 30exa to which it will drop during November.
Also, he has chosen to ignore the fact that hashate jumped again to pre "crisis" levels in March while the price was still hovering around 4000$ and that was not triggered because miners dictate the price but the fact that second batch of s17 and m20 started to be delivered.
That drop could be blamed on the bulk of s9's reaching the limits of profitability while at the same time farms were refitting their gear (the first batch of s17 was delivered in late October) and right now just doubling numbers is stupid, at side by side electricity costs and thinking that 3500 was some sort of "capitulation" for the older gear the next "capitulation" can't happen until we go below 6000 at the current hash rate.
This latest difficulty change has levelled out at just over 5% below the ATH hash rate that's despite the price being over 20% lower than it was at that time. Looks like they've taken it in their stride not that anyone should care in the slightest.
And we're still up 20% on a 90 days time frame while the price is down 25%
I can hardly find a worse indicator other than the number of horses that have taken a dump on the track at Kempton.