In fact, the projection doesn't respect the 2015-2017 cycle. We already dropped to the 4-year MA late last year, so immediately dropping back there again suggests something very different is happening this time.
Technically we dropped down to the 200 Week MA, but we didn't reach the 4 Year MA that was slightly lower.
Fair enough but it starts to feel like curve-fitting to focus only on the 4-year MA. I think retreating to the 200-week MA again would make the same point.
Arguably we haven't made contact during this current cycle, even if it was close enough that it might as well of been considered support.
Yes, I'm of the school of thought that says price never
needs to touch a specific level for the associated support to come in. Markets often overshoot or undershoot specific S/R.