now is the last time the Whales buy cheap btc. that's why the market was deliberately manipulated to make the price of bitcoin go down. and after that they pump slowly to look like market growth.
so what do you think, is my thinking wrong?
I'm sure there is some manipulation, but I think it can be overstated. Small coins can be manipulated easily, but it takes a lot to manipulate bitcoin significantly. Yes I think whales are trying, but I don't think that they can do more than give BTC price a small nudge.
But you are making the assumption that the whales are trying to use fiat to manipulate the market, the whales of this market are holding bitcoin and regardless of the price of bitcoin in fiat they still have the same amount of bitcoin, which means that early adopters that have tens of thousands or even more coins can move the price as they wish by manipulating the supply and the demand of bitcoin, however that manipulation is not really an excuse to not make money in the markets.