This bet is basically because I ran my mouth and suchmoon called me out on it lol, so I had to honor it no mater what, but SM was nice enough to give some pretty fair draw conditions IMO, generously.. I think my draw conditions might be worth the lost possible, uh, pay spread for the bet that I could have got from some shady bookie site..
If you wanted to simulate similar bet terms on a sportsbook site the closest you can get I think is to bet on Trump winning and on him not getting the nomination.
Let's say Trump's win offers +125, so you'd need +400 or better on the no-nomination bet so that you could put 0.025 BTC on it and get 0.125 BTC back if Trump doesn't get the nomination.
Still not quite the same since I'm offering a draw if Trump drops out after the nomination as well. And you don't need to tie up additional funds for the hedge bet. And the "no nomination" offer is next to non-existent... most sites offer only a list of potential nominees without a blanket "not Trump" option.
Is 0.1BTC going big?
It's ~0.000005 of a large pizza.