I was reading through this topic , checked the excel sheet and I was inspired to make something similar and to take the "speculation" a little bit further, and I came up with this.



-Since I have no data of future difficulty ( for obvious reasons ) that factor has been totally ignored.
-I also think that mining gears efficiency improvement will cover up for hashrate decrease that is caused by future halving.

The most important column would be the most right (Price Required) , which stands for the price bitcoin has to be in order for

1- Mining to be as profitable as it is today.
2- The incentives for mining remains the same.
3- Mining decentralization does not fade away.
4- 51% attack cost / difficulty does not decrease.

At which point do you think that all the above will be extremely hard to keep ?

I personally think that before 2045's halving whereby price only needs to be at around half a million $ per coin is somehow safe, after that things will start to get really difficult for miners and for bitcoin as a whole ,assuming price does not go pass 100,000$ by 2040 bitcoin mining will be 80% less profitable and less decentralized.

While the next a few years or decades seem to be pretty promising, things become complicated as we move on, i will most likely be dead by then, but I love to speculate how will mining be like by then??