How do you distinguish between a dip and a crash here?
Last week's difficulty drop was only -0.74%. Prior to that, difficulty actually rose by +1.99%. That doesn't seem indicative of "capitulation" to me. We need an actual crash like Q4 last year for miners to start shutting down en masse.
I think you may be confusing the start of the capitulation with the end of the capitulation cycle. Minder shut off en masse usually at the end of the such a cycle.
You're removing all meaning from the word "capitulation" and making it interchangeable with "bear market." There is no such thing as a capitulation
cycle. It refers to a specific part of a bearish market cycle, where massive losses on high volumes are observed.
There is
nothing interchangeable about miner capitulation and bear markets, there is only a relative correlation between the two. For example as
previously referenced, there was miner capitulation in 2012 and 2013 that arrived during price consolidation periods, without any bearish price movements. Fundamentally, the hash ribbons indicator is based on
hash rate, not price that relates to
bear markets. Acknowledging certain relationships between the two - miner capitulation and bear markets - might be a good start in order to understand this technical analysis.