Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!)
by
exstasie
on 18/12/2019, 03:13:48 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
From a Wyckoff cycle point of view, it may not be so bearish. David's analysis puts us deep in Phase D of an accumulation schematic, which suggests a very bullish 2020 to come: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg53176663#msg53176663

Given the prevailing trend, things are looking very pessimistic. That's why virtually everyone I see is bearish. That's also how it should feel near the bottom.

Ah yes I am familiar with the wyckoff stuff. Given that we were around 3xxx in feb, I'd be assuming that the accumulation phase is still in that region given there has not been a take off yet...

Hasn't there been? The market rallied from the low $3,000s to the upper $13,000s. A 350% rise far above the original accumulation range is pretty clearly a "sign of strength" in Wyckoff terms.

I'm not sure everyone is pessimistic (if you look at TA people, possibly, as they see what the charts tell them) if you look at e.g. overall sentiment on the boards here (you only have to look at the post before yours!) people are still sure that there is nothing to see its just a pull back, we are still in an uptrend!

From a long term, yearly chart perspective, of course we're still in an uptrend. In terms of pivot highs and lows, it doesn't become a downtrend until we break below the 2015 bottom ~$150.

Anyway, trader sentiment is what really matters. The idea behind capitulation is that "everyone who is going to sell has sold." Permabulls are never going to sell (at least not into a downtrend) so their bullish sentiment isn't important right now.