Re: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!)
@JayJuanGee ... I'm still massively bullish on Bitcoin, but I don't see any future for BTC. It's a long story, which nobody is interested in so I won't waste anyone's time 
Sounds contradictory just the way you stated it, and of course, not too many people are interested in BIG blocker nonsense or any of that kind of snake oil baloney in a bitcoin thread, and maybe we are getting a bit off the topic if we go into descriptions about what is consensus, which ends up driving the direction of BTC in terms of Schelling point type dynamics.
Fair enough. I kind of read back about some of sgbett's previous stances to better understand regarding his point of view situation.
So, ultimately merely because he believes that bitcoin is no longer the real bitcoin, the topic of this particular thread has NOT changed to something other than being about bitcoin, as far as I can tell. And, maybe that is where the Schelling point concepts come to play out?
Of course, anyone can attempt to make certain arguments about bitcoin transitioning to some other status or needing to transition towards a certain status, but that seems to be a topic of another thread - when this one is about bitcoin prices and bitcoin price dynamics, rather than being about "what is bitcoin?"
Absolutely correct. Topic was always about BTC price and the forecast was made long before any fork action, purely based on crowd behaviour.
The question as to what happens once the bottom is un remains unanswered, but given I'm suggesting 2021 for that, we have a long way to go. At that point people might want to reflect on the fundamentals, because as I've said so many times before, speculative run-ups are always predicated by the rising price in line with the s-curve of adoption... e.g this post from 2014
...snip...
A. There is an underlying sigmoid function (wikipedia'd that one!) that drives base valuation - the adoption curve.
B. That the market price is some cyclical function underpinned by the base valuation (A).
C. We end with widespread adoption after about 10 years, representing a base value of BTC based on some percentage of the economy. I picked risto's $300k because its as good a figure as any
...snip...
A. There is an underlying sigmoid function (wikipedia'd that one!) that drives base valuation - the adoption curve.
B. That the market price is some cyclical function underpinned by the base valuation (A).
C. We end with widespread adoption after about 10 years, representing a base value of BTC based on some percentage of the economy. I picked risto's $300k because its as good a figure as any
...snip...
Only when speculation is secondary to base utility price can we establish a new baseline.
For the next speculative BTC run you have to have more adoption than during the last market bottom (ie the 200 range for the best part of 2015). Failure to make new lows is what gives people the confidence to buy again. To catalyse a new speculative run-up you need price to be increasing as result of utility/adoption (since the speculators have left). When adoption is causing higher lows, that's when speculators take note and the cycle begins again.
Back in the day adoption used to be measured by how many coffee shops can you buy bitcoin. Now, I'd be more inclined to look at e.g.business use at scale
YMMV but lets wait until this market cycle is complete and price discovery establishes a new BTC baseline before we talk about the next speculative run-up. You might feel very differently over the coming year(s) as things unfold.