- First halving, on November 2012 : Bitcoin increased from $11 to $1,100 in 2013 (one year later)
- Second halving, on July 2016 : Bitcoin increased from $600 to $20,000 in 2017 (one year later)
- Third halving, on May 2020 : Bitcoin increased from $6,000-$8,000 to $??? in 2021 (one year later)
I don't think the moves in 2013 and 2017 were anything to do with the halving at all.
The key event of 2013 was the Cyprus crisis where they did bail-ins without warning people. Lots of people lost their savings and some businesses even lost their payroll money and couldn't pay their staff.
That led to people saying, "be your own bank, and use bitcoin, at least the govt won't be able to seize it". And worldwide, this created interest in bitcoin.
In 2017 it was China that was the reason. China has capital controls but people were able to get some money out to buy property abroad. (They'd usually buy a property in Vancouver or Sydney with a mortgage and then take money out of china each year to pay that mortgage. After 25 they'd have got their money out and hopefully made a capital gain as well).
The crackdown on that kind of thing led to people trying to get their money out via bitcoin. Especially after Xi Jingping declared himself president for life. That initial rise in the bitcoin price then got publicised everywhere and millenials in the west started buying.
In order for that sequence to repeat, we need a new story that will compel people to buy bitcoin - but I can't see where that story is going to come from.