well, I strongly agree with halving bitcoin that will have a good impact on bitcoin price movements and will surprise traders who have bought bitcoin at low prices because it will be increasingly difficult to get bitcoin and demand will increase.
Of the events listed by the OP I think the halving of Bitcoin would have a significant impact although the pump in the price might not happen at exactly halving but its very obvious it would happen in the aftermath of the halving
when the demand of Bitcoin would outweigh supply while other events are also important as well.