Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by Majormax (1)
I read your post as being exceedingly cautious, Majormax, and you already likely recognize that I continue to believe that there is a bit more underlying buying pressures than the amount that you seem to be willing to accept present. Furthermore, supply is a pretty damned underlying force, whether you want to categorize it as "secondary" or not... supply is a kind of hard pressure that inevitably ends up biting the bears in the ass.. especially any of them who under estimate its power, after they are manipulating down for much longer and much lower than can be contained and ends up resulting in a lot of irrational and uncontainable upwards FOMO buying... which is likely going to be another history that repeats itself... surely not guaranteed in any kind of way, but a seeming likely outcome... time and degree to be determined.
You are quite right. I think it wise to be cautious.
I wouldn't categorise supply as a 'force', but demand acts more like the pressure. If you had to say which was more active and which more passive, how would you label them ?
Supply is more a variable which is acted upon by demand, and I suppose that is my point in saying that the effect of halving is not a given. Only when demand is absolutely assured and permanent does supply become the active variable.
I cannot disagree with anything you say there, and yeah, supply is more passive, but it get's manipulated to fuck, and that is just part of the dynamics of something like this and we are also learning as we go along regarding how far and how long it can be manipulated.
Let's take the stock to flow, for example. We do not know if it is a very accurate predictive force, even though we can see that historically there can be a kind of description and there can be a kind of prediction that gets put in place based on the description and the formula and suggests that the future is going to follow a kind of similar path as the path. At the same, time there is a kind of predictable mean in which the price is likely to gravitate within that model, while at the same time, there are likely going to continue to be powers that be that try their damnest to try to either create conditions to make the model become untrue or make it appear that it is not true.
So, sure, it is possible that they could become successful and make the predictive model NOT be true on a kind of permanent basis (which seems highly unlikely that they could be successful in such an endeavor), or they may end up trying their damnest for a long time to manipulate the BTC price below the predictive location, but sooner or later it comes to bite them in the ass and either just merely reverts back to the predictive line or ends up shooting past the predictive line in the opposite direction.
We will see. We will see.
By the way, there is also the four year fractal comparison model and the s-curve exponential adoption model that kind of ongoingly builds upon the ongoing network effects that keep building in a kind of Lindy Effect kind of way that seems to be a bit towards the upside and also towards the front running potentiality... Who knows what is going to happen exactly, but I would be a bit worried if I was NOT sufficiently and adequately prepared for up while worrying to damned much about the downside as being anything negative beyond just a period to either HODL or to buy some more bitcoin in the spirit of ACCUMULATL.
Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.
Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens.
edit : Merry Christmas !!
Edit merry christmas, to you too... and merry christmas to all of the WO bros... and gal..
Of course, we cannot be strict about the halvening because we know that almost nothing is likely to happen on that actual day or even within months around the actual halvening date because 1) there can be manipulation that goes on around that even (either up or down) and 2) it takes a while for the lessening of the supply to actually be felt in a kind of "HARD" way. Yeah, many of us know that the supply shock is happening, but still, that does not stop manipulation attempts in the opposite direction (meaning down)..... ... and it also does not discount that if "everyone" or damned near everyone starts to attempt to consider that the pumpening is going to happen later that the pumpenining might still end up happening sooner in a kind of front running kind of a way.
We cannot be attempting to put too much exactness in where the hell BTC prices are going, and yeah, I understand that even you was anticipating BTC prices to drag on downwardly for a lot longer than theyd did and the April to June 3.5x pumpening surprised a lot of use, but it does not mean that we necessarily revert to that earlier theory of BTC prices going down low and long and more pain having to be felt. Such pain might happen, and it might not.... and, yeah, you Majormax, just love yourself some ongoing and onward down cautioning talk... it's your favorite past-time, even during christmas... you BIG party poop....
