Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by Arriemoller (1)
The Hash Ribbons indicator is currently signalling a buy. Closing the day at current price would be the first buy signal since January 11th 2019 at $3,632. 
Sorry but had to post again, still can't get my head around this. Most indicators are telling me we're going down. Hash Ribbons is telling me the bottoms in on a long-term scale.
Why do I care about Hash so much? I don't, I care about an indicator that's given 9 signals in 9 years with 100% success rate of calculating post-bottoms in the market (or best accumulation prices). Therefore, if this signal is wrong, it would be part of the 10% unreliable signalling, meaning on a Daily time-frame at least, there is a 90% chance the bottom is in
This signal might still work, but there is a simple technical explanation for hashing rate stagnation (or minuscule decline).
The reason is that upon decline from $14K to $7K and simultaneous prior increase in hashing caused by the deployment of new generation miners (starting in about may-June), old trusty S9 miners become mostly unprofitable to run and there was A LOT of them, so it was a multi-month process of switching old gen off and new on. Large miners never do it in one swoop, it is a process.
TL;DR It is was not switching hashing OFF, it was a replacement cycle.
Not relevant. These signals have been back tested pre-ASIC. I'm sure that any TA based miner would be able to pin point the relevant cycles with releases of different models of miners that end up on the market, or others that drop out of the market for that matter, in relation to these capitulation & buy cycles.
Me, I do not care for economics. Only reliable technical indicators. It's signalling a buy and this indicator hasn't been wrong yet, I won't be betting against it for that reason.
TA is voodoo, it NEVER works reliably. Economics of the process is what actually works.
BTW: in the hypothetical surrogate TA observation that temperature is lower in the winter than in the summer (in northern hemisphere) what is more important: the "TA" observation or the knowledge of orbital tilt and planet rotation around the star?