Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Millionero
on 29/12/2019, 03:01:32 UTC
There is a formula (Klein Kelly criterion-see wiki) which describes the % of portfolio one should dedicate to a bet.
The problem is-it involves assigning a probability to a trade success, which is almost always an impossible task.
Example: on a trade with 60% success one should invest 20% of the portfolio; trade with 70% success, 40% of portfolio, etc, etc.
Mind you, these %% are "real" numbers, not imaginary ones.
Also, NO MARGIN.

EDIT:
Formula...Fraction of portfolio to invest (in decimals)=[2X(chance of trade success in decimals)]-1
Therefore, 0% to invest when 50:50 (or lower) and 100% to invest when 100% chance of success.
Everything else-in between.

Actually, at 50:50 Klein Kelly says "invest nothing", right - but if the odds are under 50-50, the Klein criterion suggest the opposite bet should be taken, with an amount again determined by the formula you quoted (it will come out as a negative fraction).

Example: on a bet with 40:60 odds (that's less than 0.5), the criterion suggests 2 * (0.40) - 1 = 0.8 - 1 = -0.2,
that is, invest 20% on the OPPOSITE bet (if anything like that exists).

Thanks, great qualification (re the opposite bet)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

The Kelly criterion applies to "simple bets with two outcomes, one involving losing the entire amount bet, and the other involving winning the bet amount multiplied by the payoff odds" (quoted wiki)

The Kelly criterion may be used in investing, but its application there is much more involved than the simple betting forumula.  Wiki has more info.