Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
555Many
on 29/12/2019, 13:06:51 UTC
However, to give credit to the ECM model, the fact that 2001.695 date was on point, and that Goldman Sachs was getting sued on Pi dates, freaking twice, was hair raising. So I began to see what other theories, researchers, serious ones, in the field of mathematics, come to similar conclusions as Martin.

There is the classical innovation wave cycle of around 54-50 years, from the Kondratiev wave cycle. Which may have inspired Martin to look broadly over the decades. Then there is recent research involved with socio-dynamical theory, explaining the fall and rise of empires. Peter Turchin, a mathematician, explains dynamically, with his equations (there are real differential equations involved) that there are 50-year cycles (close to Martins 8.6 x 6 year) in civil revolts, and debt repayment cycles. And that the next one should line up in early 2020/21  

He also suggests that there are 300-year levels in power, and population rises and falls. Which is very close to 309.6 years (8.6 x 36) Martin suggests 2032, completion of the 309-year cycle. If the powers that be comply and conform a decade before, the change in 2032 is not as dramatic and a slow change in transfer of power. Which makes sense liking the allegory, of removing a lid of a pot of boiling water, before it explodes.

Peter Turchin has a working model and tested it in pass data, where this data was not actually trained with the model but tested on. He also is very hopeful that his model does not work in 2021 because if true there will be major bloodshed on the streets, because of economic turmoil. I see no reason why he should fudge his research, and this field in physics/mathematics is valid. I think we behave as heard of animals in times of panic, and very predictable because we postpone issues until it culminates in a disaster. This enduring time has a limit, that is extractable with the data we have, and roughly corresponds to the 50 year level of debt repayments.