Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 2 from 2 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
kurious
on 02/01/2020, 22:53:28 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1) ,Dunkelheit667 (1)

In 2021 for sure, I’m not certain of that in 2020 but would love to be wrong.

My feeling as well ... the increase in 2020 is probably modest, but I expect / hope that we reach a new ATH in 2021 or 2022.

Main reason; the cycles are getting more spread out, and the halving is probably more anticipated now than the last time (more energy efficient miners, and so on). So I don't expect any fireworks starting before Q3 / Q4 2020.

I'd love to be wrong as well though, of course!


There is as yet no evidence that the cycle is lengthening.   Any real mooning in 2020 would be (if anything) a tad early as four years from 2017 would mean 2021.

This year's halving will be almost seven weeks earlier than in 2016 which may have some effect, but I doubt a massive one, cycle-wise.  After the last halving the price spent months doing little until towards the end of 2016, and it didn't break the ATH until into early 2017.  It ended 2016 only a little over twice the price it was at the start of that year.

If a four year cycle is intact, the price was ahead of itself in the middle of last year, but it is now back roughly in line with a repeat of 2015 / 2016.  The model (if it were to exactly repeat) would see a spike around the halving and then a dip... then a spike up (but not ATH) around November December this year (2020).  The seven weeks earlier may affect things with that timeline and pull an ATH into this year - but in any case we already veered off it once quite massively, so what honey badger will do is obviously far from predictable with any certainty.

A lengthening cycle is neither proven nor disproven, yet.  That said, so far it's more likely IMHO that if we are to have another 'mooning' it will be late in 2021 - with the ATH broken possibly in late 2020, but more likely early 2021.

Just my thoughts at the start of this halving year.  My gut instinct says:

Trust Satoshi's design, be patient, but stay strapped in.