Re: Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years
No, it was not what math calculated, don't bring math into this.
It was what you got from forcing math formulas with no basis.
It was what you got from forcing math formulas with no basis.
Source code mathematics referenced below. I haven't forced anything, I didn't write the code
If you pick your timesets as you see fit you can come up with really amazing facts, let's have an example...
Bitcoin will NEVER REACH 100K /BTC.
And I can prove it with hashrate, furthermore, I will avoid the first years with the dramatic price increase and the years with no asic mining.
On the 1st of January 2015, we had a price of 750$ and a hashrate of 11PH.
On the 1st January 2020, we're sitting at 7000$ and a hashrate of 90 EH.
That's a growth of 10x in price and 9000x in hash rate.
So, using math to reach 100k we need an increase of ~15k times in hahrate...
That's math!!!!
Bitcoin will NEVER REACH 100K /BTC.
And I can prove it with hashrate, furthermore, I will avoid the first years with the dramatic price increase and the years with no asic mining.
On the 1st of January 2015, we had a price of 750$ and a hashrate of 11PH.
On the 1st January 2020, we're sitting at 7000$ and a hashrate of 90 EH.
That's a growth of 10x in price and 9000x in hash rate.
So, using math to reach 100k we need an increase of ~15k times in hahrate...
That's math!!!!
Congrats on your mathematics! Price is also -60% since ATH while hash rate is up around 700% (8x)
I guess this also means by standard of simple mathematics that 16x hash rate would mean the price would be -120%?
So that's anything between a price of -$1,500 and +$100K. I think you need to work on your indicator, it's lacking utility
As you'll see below, the code uses "variables" and more than one equation
You see....math!
Code: (Hash Ribbons indicator)
//@version=4
study("Hash Ribbons",overlay= false)
// NOTES
// The "Spring" is the confirmed Miner capitulation period:
// - The 1st "gray" circle is the start of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses UNDER 2 month Hash Rate)
// - Last "green" circle is the end of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses OVER 2 month Hash Rate)
// - The "greener" the spring gets (up until blue) represents Hash Rate recovery (it is increasing)
// - The "blue" circle is the first instance of positive momentum following recovery of Hash Rate (1m HR > 2m HR). This is historically a rewarding place to buy with limited downside.
// INPUTS
type = input('Ribbons',options=['Ribbons','Oscillator'],title="Plot Type")
len_s = input(30,"Hash Rate Short SMA (days).")
len_l = input(60,"Hash Rate Long SMA (days).")
signals = input(true, "Plot Signals")
plot_halvings = input(true,"Plot Halvings")
raw = input(false, "Plot Raw Hash Rate")
// HASH RATE MA
// HR on TV only has "yesterday's" value --> use "lookahead_on" when running live (on current bar), to pull forward yesterdays data
live_HR_raw = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", close,gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
live_HR_short = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_s),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
live_HR_long = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_l),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
hist_HR_raw = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", close,gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
hist_HR_short = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_s),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
hist_HR_long = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_l),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
daily_s10 = security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", sma(close,10),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
daily_s20 = security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", sma(close,20),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
// DAILY TIMEFRAME MGMT
is_newbar(res) =>
t = time(res) // res calculated below \/
change(t) != 0 ? true : false
// Check how many bars are in our upper (otf) timeframe
since_new_bar = barssince(is_newbar("D")) //1-360 for minutes, D = Daily, W = Weekly, M = Monthly
D_total_bars = int(na)
D_total_bars := since_new_bar == 0 ? since_new_bar[1] : D_total_bars[1] // calculates the total number of current time frame bars in the OTF
// INDICATORS
HR_short = float(na)
HR_long = float(na)
HR_raw = float(na)
s10 = float(na)
s20 = float(na)
HR_short := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_short : hist_HR_short
HR_long := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_long : hist_HR_long
HR_raw := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_raw : hist_HR_raw
s10 := barstate.isrealtime ? (since_new_bar == D_total_bars ? daily_s10 : s10[1]) : daily_s10
s20 := barstate.isrealtime ? (since_new_bar == D_total_bars ? daily_s20 : s20[1]) : daily_s20
capitulation = crossunder(HR_short,HR_long)
miner_capitulation = HR_shortrecovering = HR_short > HR_short[1] and HR_short > HR_short[2] and HR_short > HR_short[3] and miner_capitulation
recovered = crossover(HR_short,HR_long)
// HASH BOTTOM + PA SIGNAL
buy = false
buy := s10>s20
and (
(barssince(recovered) < barssince(crossunder(s10,s20)) and barssince(recovered) < barssince(capitulation))
or crossover(HR_short,HR_long)
)
buy_plot = buy and (buy[1] == false)
// OSCILLATOR
delta = HR_short-HR_long
diff = (delta/HR_short)*100
// PLOT - DEFAULT
plot(raw ? HR_raw : na, color = color.green, linewidth = 1, style = plot.style_line, title='HR Raw')
p1=plot(type=='Ribbons'? HR_long : na, color = color.gray, linewidth = 2, style = plot.style_line,title='HR SMA Long')
p2=plot(type=='Ribbons'? HR_short : na, color = (HR_shortfill(p1,p2,color=(HR_short
// PLOT - OSCILLATOR
plot(type=='Oscillator' ? diff : na,style=plot.style_columns,color=(diff<0?color.red:color.blue),title='Oscillator')
// PLOT - SIGNALS
plotshape(signals ? capitulation :na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.gray,size=size.normal,transp=50,text='Capitulation',textcolor=color.black,title='Capitulation')
plotshape(signals ? miner_capitulation : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.green,size=size.normal,transp=90,title='Miner Capitulation')
plotshape(signals ? recovering : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.green,size=size.normal,transp=50,title='Recovering')
plotshape(signals ? recovered : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.lime,size=size.normal,transp=0,textcolor=color.white,title='Recovered')
plotshape(signals ? buy_plot: na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.blue,size=size.normal,transp=0,text="Buy",textcolor=color.blue,title='Buy')
// HALVINGS
halving_1 = timestamp(2012,11,28,0,0)
halving_2 = timestamp(2016,7,9,0,0)
halving_3 = timestamp(2020,4,30,0,0) // projected! https://www.bitcoinclock.com/
h1_range = time >= halving_1 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_1 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
h2_range = time >= halving_2 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_2 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
h3_range = time >= halving_3 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_3 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
bgcolor(h1_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
bgcolor(h2_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
bgcolor(h3_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
//ALERTS
alertcondition(capitulation, title='Alert - Capitulation')
alertcondition(recovered, title='Alert - Recovered')
alertcondition(buy and not(buy[1]), title='Alert - Buy')
study("Hash Ribbons",overlay= false)
// NOTES
// The "Spring" is the confirmed Miner capitulation period:
// - The 1st "gray" circle is the start of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses UNDER 2 month Hash Rate)
// - Last "green" circle is the end of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses OVER 2 month Hash Rate)
// - The "greener" the spring gets (up until blue) represents Hash Rate recovery (it is increasing)
// - The "blue" circle is the first instance of positive momentum following recovery of Hash Rate (1m HR > 2m HR). This is historically a rewarding place to buy with limited downside.
// INPUTS
type = input('Ribbons',options=['Ribbons','Oscillator'],title="Plot Type")
len_s = input(30,"Hash Rate Short SMA (days).")
len_l = input(60,"Hash Rate Long SMA (days).")
signals = input(true, "Plot Signals")
plot_halvings = input(true,"Plot Halvings")
raw = input(false, "Plot Raw Hash Rate")
// HASH RATE MA
// HR on TV only has "yesterday's" value --> use "lookahead_on" when running live (on current bar), to pull forward yesterdays data
live_HR_raw = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", close,gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
live_HR_short = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_s),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
live_HR_long = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_l),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
hist_HR_raw = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", close,gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
hist_HR_short = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_s),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
hist_HR_long = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_l),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
daily_s10 = security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", sma(close,10),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
daily_s20 = security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", sma(close,20),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
// DAILY TIMEFRAME MGMT
is_newbar(res) =>
t = time(res) // res calculated below \/
change(t) != 0 ? true : false
// Check how many bars are in our upper (otf) timeframe
since_new_bar = barssince(is_newbar("D")) //1-360 for minutes, D = Daily, W = Weekly, M = Monthly
D_total_bars = int(na)
D_total_bars := since_new_bar == 0 ? since_new_bar[1] : D_total_bars[1] // calculates the total number of current time frame bars in the OTF
// INDICATORS
HR_short = float(na)
HR_long = float(na)
HR_raw = float(na)
s10 = float(na)
s20 = float(na)
HR_short := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_short : hist_HR_short
HR_long := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_long : hist_HR_long
HR_raw := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_raw : hist_HR_raw
s10 := barstate.isrealtime ? (since_new_bar == D_total_bars ? daily_s10 : s10[1]) : daily_s10
s20 := barstate.isrealtime ? (since_new_bar == D_total_bars ? daily_s20 : s20[1]) : daily_s20
capitulation = crossunder(HR_short,HR_long)
miner_capitulation = HR_shortrecovering = HR_short > HR_short[1] and HR_short > HR_short[2] and HR_short > HR_short[3] and miner_capitulation
recovered = crossover(HR_short,HR_long)
// HASH BOTTOM + PA SIGNAL
buy = false
buy := s10>s20
and (
(barssince(recovered) < barssince(crossunder(s10,s20)) and barssince(recovered) < barssince(capitulation))
or crossover(HR_short,HR_long)
)
buy_plot = buy and (buy[1] == false)
// OSCILLATOR
delta = HR_short-HR_long
diff = (delta/HR_short)*100
// PLOT - DEFAULT
plot(raw ? HR_raw : na, color = color.green, linewidth = 1, style = plot.style_line, title='HR Raw')
p1=plot(type=='Ribbons'? HR_long : na, color = color.gray, linewidth = 2, style = plot.style_line,title='HR SMA Long')
p2=plot(type=='Ribbons'? HR_short : na, color = (HR_shortfill(p1,p2,color=(HR_short
// PLOT - OSCILLATOR
plot(type=='Oscillator' ? diff : na,style=plot.style_columns,color=(diff<0?color.red:color.blue),title='Oscillator')
// PLOT - SIGNALS
plotshape(signals ? capitulation :na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.gray,size=size.normal,transp=50,text='Capitulation',textcolor=color.black,title='Capitulation')
plotshape(signals ? miner_capitulation : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.green,size=size.normal,transp=90,title='Miner Capitulation')
plotshape(signals ? recovering : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.green,size=size.normal,transp=50,title='Recovering')
plotshape(signals ? recovered : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.lime,size=size.normal,transp=0,textcolor=color.white,title='Recovered')
plotshape(signals ? buy_plot: na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.blue,size=size.normal,transp=0,text="Buy",textcolor=color.blue,title='Buy')
// HALVINGS
halving_1 = timestamp(2012,11,28,0,0)
halving_2 = timestamp(2016,7,9,0,0)
halving_3 = timestamp(2020,4,30,0,0) // projected! https://www.bitcoinclock.com/
h1_range = time >= halving_1 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_1 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
h2_range = time >= halving_2 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_2 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
h3_range = time >= halving_3 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_3 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
bgcolor(h1_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
bgcolor(h2_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
bgcolor(h3_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
//ALERTS
alertcondition(capitulation, title='Alert - Capitulation')
alertcondition(recovered, title='Alert - Recovered')
alertcondition(buy and not(buy[1]), title='Alert - Buy')
Reference: https://www.tradingview.com/script/kT7jIvqv-Hash-Ribbons/