Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
MTL4
on 06/01/2020, 13:25:45 UTC
Please try to understand the following:

The forecast array has 12 columns. For the sake of argument, if each column had a turning point, what would the predictive value of it?

Zero.

If on the other hand, a forecast array had only a single turning point in it, then that would be something. But it would still be of a low value because it can be interpreted as both a low or a high.

The fact is that forecast arrays typically have more than one turning point, in fact many turning points, so the predictive value is low due to the resulting ambiguity.


I totally agree with you, from what I've had explained thus far (both at a WEC and from other supposed gurus on the subject) of MA's array rules and how to use them those arrays don't have any value as is IMHO.  Everyone says only the reversals are for trading (even more useless IMHO). What I am saying is that if you disregard all that and just look at the long-term row there may be some accuracy to whatever he's using to create it.  I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data and there appears to be some weak correlation but that's all I can postulate at this point.  Could it all be just circumstance, sure but the reverse could be true as well.  It's not after the fact because that array was around well before being used so we can at least rule that out.

Do we have any idea how he actually creates the arrays?