In 2016 the halving was early July. Depending on the exchange, the price was as follows:
May 1, 2016 $453
June 1, 2016 $536
July 1, 2016 just before the halving $677
The price increased about 50% from May 1 to July 1 just before the halving event.
Should we expect something similar this time?
I would say that according to statistics, bitcoin's price was stable before halving and even after that for a while. Actual rise started in November, after 3-4 months from halving it went from 600$ to 700$ and then went up and up, we had amazing rise, this process for me was like a rush of dopamine. Price rise didn't start in May because you have to consider that a lot of things happened at that time, for example hashocean had scam exit and believe me a lot of people had invested there, because of this scam everyone thought that they would sell their coins in a hurry and price would decrease. There were still a lot of moments to remember from previous halving.
Personally I would say that we will see clear picture after some months from halving, not right now or not right the day after halving.