I think that's the most likely reason, but who's to say?  There's no reason why bitcoin's price should go up right now because of the upcoming halving, and it's never really clear how bitcoin reacts to world events like wars and such. 

Bitcoin was above $8k just a few months ago, so it's not like this is a huge deal right now.  Yes, it's up relative to where it's been since November but it's still a hell of a long ways away from its ATH.  I also happen to think that this Trump-Iran thing might have had an effect, but I'm not completely sure about it and it also looks like the situation might be de-escalating somewhat. 

I think it's going to be an interesting year for bitcoin, I'll say that.