This count is still holding on:



Given the structure and our position in the descending channel, we're at a very crucial point in the charts. A possible inflection point. I want to show how the above count might fit into the bigger picture.

This is the bullish impulse scenario. Price action is unlikely to play out exactly like this; the point is a valid 5-wave impulse that breaks the June-January downtrend:



The alternative scenario implies the rally since December 18th is not an impulse at all. We do not have sufficient evidence to rule this out yet:



Wave 3s typically extend to the 1.618 of Wave 1, if not further. So a higher high near/past the $8,900 level will make the bearish scenario above much less likely. That's the first baby step we want to see from here for the bull scenario to keep progressing.

In other news, the market continues to shed longs: down to 32,500 BTC on Bitfinex. That's down almost 32% from the peak last month. Bullish.