Booker is out and Bernie is surging (at exactly the right time). Warren lost too much support when she flipped flopped on M4A.
Quite a swing from just a few months ago when Warren was on Top and Bernie had just had a heart attack.
FiveThirtyEights lastest forcast
Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted
FiveThirtyEights model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. Were also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome. Right now, many candidates, even the front-runners, wind up with tall bars close to zero generally, those are simulations where the candidate dropped out before having a chance to accumulate many delegates.
