Right now we are in a point in which it is very difficult to predict what bitcoin will do because it can take almost any direction, it is obvious that with the recent growth that we are experimenting people are very positive about the next movement of bitcoin but I'm not so sure, as you say it could still go down again because we still have several months left before we see the halving so all of that enthusiasm is bound to calm down and when that happens the price will go down as well.
Yes, I totally agree, it's hard to predict anything right now. But I'm pretty sure that this year will be better for bitcoin than 2019... I hope so because I hold mine coins. In reference to 2019 bitcoin's experience, I've read great article with a little "summary" of bitcoin's situation in 2019, here it is:
https://buycoinnow.com/blog/bitcoins-situation-in-2019