~snip~
There are many ways to speculate, each person develops their style due to their experience or what they have learned, some have a natural talent for speculation to be successful, it is a very small rate, but in the market, there are many who generally use analysis fundamental, technical and the combination of both.
Logic in the market rarely works, normally the market does the opposite of what should happen logically, or what the masam thinks and given the volatility, it makes the movements more aggressive on some occasions. Jesse Livermore, always in his books recommends speculating on the line of least resistance, putting emotions aside and thinking like strong hands, which is the best strategy.