So the ECM turning point arrived 18 Jan 2020. What happened?
Let's take a look at the MA/ECM forecasts from older blog posts:
Dec 28, 2014"We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.05. The bottom of the ECM 2020.05 will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.75 and 2020.05."https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/understanding-big-bang-2015-75/Also see:
"Laissez-faire economics will return once again by the end of the collapse in state rule over the economy"http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2014/12/Laissez-faire-death-of-Marxism.jpgSep 2, 2015"... the last 4.3 years are typically the worst. That is what we should see between 2015.75 and 2020.05... This is the peak in confidence in government and it will evaporate rapidly as it did in 260 AD. This is not the end of the world, but it will be a chance to push back to restore our liberty. It will get bad at first because government will fight hard going into 2017. By mid-2018, we should begin to see the trend with more clarity for once and all."https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/the-next-four-years-after-2015-75/Nov 4, 2015"2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05. Even politics has gone nuts and the media is starting to figure out that this is all about throwing the bums out. This is the start of a very serious new trend and it is time to wake up. The velocity will begin to pick up with the benchmark targets in gold."https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/2015-75-seems-to-be-on-target/Jul 13, 2016"we are looking at the demise of governments... We are looking at the collapse of governments ability to issue debt as we move forward into this cycle... This time, governments are trying bail-ins and this is causing confidence to collapse... And to answer why we did not hold one in Berlin, yes, our models were warning about significant civil unrest in Europe as a consequence of the complete fiscal mismanagement of the ECB."https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-2015-75-crisis-moving-into-2020-05/Nov 3, 2019 (where MA acknowledges his blog post linked above Dec 28, 2014)
"This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!! The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave 2024."https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/misrepresenting-our-forecast-for-the-start-of-big-bang-2015-75/So rather than admit he was wrong, instead MA moves the goal posts, claims he was correct and explains this is just the "beginning". Wasn't he telling everyone that beginning was 2015.75?
The context of all the above blog posts going back to 2014 has MA explaining there should have been a low into 2020.05. That did not happen.Now he is explaining the period to 2022 should be "inflationary":
"But generally, the next wave of the ECM business cycle should be an inflationary one"https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-next-cycle-in-the-ecm-beginning-january-2020/Also interesting reading:
I stumbled across this from 2010, where MA makes countless forecasts - presumably based on his ECM/Socrates - and hardly any of them came to pass, including China becoming the new economic superpower by 2015.75, or at least that would be set in stone by 2020.05... Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn.
His forecasts of GBP were glaringly wrong and Socrates failed to predict one of the most politically significant events in UK history since the 1600s with Brexit.
And in this article from 2007, the ECM turning point of 2020.05 is stated as 01/26/20,
while in other blog posts, it is 01/18/20.
If his alleged machine spits out dates
"to the day" that are not based on opinion or interpretation, was this just a typo?
So what happened on 18 Jan 2020?Nothing.It was another 2015.75 all over again. There is indeed a clear cycle to everything, including MA's BS.
