After the halving, demand will double the previous supply & maybe triple
Not sure where you get those stats from.In May the mining production cuts in half. Ratio demand/supply doubles. I said it could triple because of all the fomo and willingness of the participants to sell.
that analogy only works in a perfect world not the real world that we live in. in real world there aren't 4 people each with 1 apple, instead there are 5 people 4 of which have 1 apple each and another person with a bushel of apples. when price falls that 1 person aka the whale can dump his bushel crashing the price. in that case it doesn't matter if there are holders, he still crashed the market and then bought cheap apples at the bottom. in this scenario the only thing that prevents him from crashing the market as low as he wants is the buyers who are making the crash exponentially harder with their buy support.
Interesting point of view BrewMaster. I wasn't seen that side. Yes, I think you are right. It may be a mix of several things. The hodlers & buyers are definitely two of them. The whales are very predictable & they can only create waves in the surface. They always do the same. And the market never learns. People get caught in the same mistake over and over again.