The reasoning is as good as any.. FWIW I too think we are not at the bottom yet, but only time will tell. If you think about it 'fundamentally' then BTC is worthless, seriously it is.. at least at this point in time. We need people spending, not holding for it to have a real value like fiat money. For now, the only reason to buy is halving, is your friend from work gonna do it because of it? No. Is your family? Rather not. This is catalyst only for insiders who care about BTC daily and it's gonna be a speculation among us. There is no money coming from outside because of this reason and I assure you, most of people you know don't give a donkey shit about BTC right now, coz they still remember x-mas 2 years ago and their / their friends' hopes going thru the window shortly after.