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There would be definitely some pullbacks but if it would tank or hold up on $9300+ price then possibly we would able to reach or break that 10k resistance.We cant still be sure if we would able to witness the same
situation on previous halvings and if we do tend to hold and wait up for that moment then buying on particular levels wont really be that an issue.
We do really have that mindset that halving events do trigger out bull runs but this isnt always the case because history might or might not repeat.
Yes, there'll be a fair amount of guessing for regular users. I believe there are analytic tools out there for predicting movement but I don't have access to that so I'd have to rely on hunches. Either way if we are staying here for years anyway we'd be able to recover even if we sold at the wrong time.