I made a new post to respond just to the last few sentences that you added on the end of your last post, bitserve...
So... seeing both "need" and "15 years" in the same sentence... is some kind of an oxymoron to me.
Seems that we can make various plans for 15 years from now, but so many things can happen in 15 years that we are just setting ourselves up for failure if we try to plan too specifically about it. Maybe that was the point that I was trying to make, ineloquent as it might have been.
P.S.: On the other hand, "need" can sometimes even make for a stronger hodler. As in: "I don't have as much as a I "need", so I will keep hodling."
Hey.. now you are getting kind of into one of my areas of interest, which is the "need" to overprepare to some extent, especially if you are keeping part of your value in bitcoin and you don't plan to cash out all of your bitcoin but instead merely to diversify (or reallocate) some of it.
You are old enough to know, bitserve
(even though I don't know your exact age, I have some ideas), about your own budget. You have practiced your budget for a while, and you have a pretty good idea about how much you need in order to continue to live your current standard of living. So, you can calculate a 4% withdrawal rate based on that in order to know if your 4% withdrawal rate is going to support you with that current standard of living. Of course, you can ramp it up a little bit, too... perhaps... but if you don't have enough of a cushion there, then you are NOT quite ready, yet, to pull the "fuck you" trigger.
So "need" is not only a bitch... but a double faced bitch.
Well, I will agree that you do not want to pull the "fuck you" trigger too early, but you also should not be waiting too long, either. Who wants to be working when they are not really physically able or when they are ready to move on to another stage in life. Of course, each of us have probably come across examples of people who were forced to work too many years in their lives, but then I also think of some people who really cannot stop working anyhow, even if they have the means to do other stuff. They seem to NOT be able to really help themselves in terms of wanting to stay active, busy and involved in certain kinds of activities that seem to be for a person of a younger age.
Sometimes if you look further under the hood, you will find that they have plenty of money, but they still have too many insecurities to spend that money.. they feel that they need a cushion.. which surely might be true, and really we cannot second guess the balancing that other people do, we can only attempt to best particularize our own measurement of when to pull the "fuck you" lever based on believing that we have enough and also to have plans within that fuck you status to be able to adjust the withdrawal rate, if needed to make the available funds a kind of perpetual motion machine.. based on our chosen struck balance of the income that we need and being able to continue to live within the means that we have chosen.
If we chose too early, or if our income from the saved funds does not really seem high enough, then yeah, maybe we will have to go without some new things.. instead of buying a new iphone and computer every 2-3 years, we have to let it ride for 4-5 years (just for example), or maybe we go on two trips per year, rather than 4 trips per year?
Of course, there are going to be some uncertainties in fuck you status, too.. because we might have speculated that we could get rid of some obligations, but then some of the obligations seem to take nearly as long as when we had a JOB... what the fuck? So, maybe in the end, I don't know, either... just gotta attempt to do our best in making the various measurements and having some flexibility and cushion in there... without allowing the perfect to become the enemy of the good.